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$1 Trillion in Losses Stemming From the U.S. Mortgage Crisis
Monday, July 28, 2008 | eMail ArticleeMail Article | Follow ProphecyResCorp on Twitter Follow Goldmau On Twitter
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The International Monetary Fund said there's no end in sight to the U.S. housing recession and warned that deteriorating credit conditions for consumers and banks may prolong a period of slow economic growth.

"At the moment, a bottom for the housing market is not visible," the IMF said in its Global Financial Stability Report, released today in Washington. "Stemming the decline in the U.S. housing market is necessary for market stabilization as this would help both households and financial institutions to recover."

The IMF, which a year ago failed to foresee the depth of the subprime mortgage collapse, stood by its April forecast for about $1 trillion in losses stemming from the U.S. mortgage crisis. While U.S. policy makers have helped contain the financial losses, "credit risks remain elevated" and banks need to raise more capital.

Worldwide asset writedowns and losses have totaled $469 billion in the past year and $345 billion has been raised.

The Washington-based lender in the report said the Federal Reserve's decisions to expand lending to Wall Street firms "have succeeded in containing systemic risks." Still, weakness in housing threatens to extend the slump.

"The growing concern is that, with delinquencies and foreclosures in the U.S. housing market rising sharply, and house prices continuing to fall, loan deterioration is becoming more widespread," the IMF said.

Falling share prices are making it harder for banks to raise capital, increasing the risk of a downward spiral in the global economy, the IMF said. The outlook for banks may make investors reluctant to provide fresh funds needed to restore the strength of financial institutions, the fund said.

Continued at Bloomberg



Bloomberg

Goldmau.com comment:

The continuing question is whether or not the commodity boom cycle has peaked or just under pressure from the credit squeeze at banks and the higher margin requirements on the commodity exchanges.

I think the latter, at least to this point, is the case. I believe all major fiat currencies are over-priced and that financial assets are stuffed with many uneconomic pieces. There will likely be a lengthy period of asset write-downs to reflect what free markets are willing to pay for those assets.

So, after a considerably harsh period of falling commodity prices, I think the general economy will pick up and interest rates will start to lift, which will protect the savings and fixed income investments and pensions from the damage that inflation always brings them.

If traders avoid any asset that might be written down or underlie a business that might fail in future, there ought to be some good years ahead, even when commodity prices begin to rally again, as they will when the economy regains its health and begins to quickly build.

Commentary courtesy David Cai, Goldmau.com analyst.

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