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Booming China Suddenly Worries That a Slowdown Is Taking Hold
Tuesday, August 05, 2008 | eMail ArticleeMail Article | Follow ProphecyResCorp on Twitter Follow Goldmau On Twitter
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Many Chinese have been expecting a post-Olympics economic slowdown, but it has already started and the Games have not even begun. A bag factory in Dongguan in January. Factory orders were down sharply last month, and many companies have cut production.

Chinese factories reported a plunge in new orders last month. Exports are barely growing. The real estate market is weakening, with apartment prices sinking in southeastern China, the region hardest hit by economic troubles. The trends, which actually have little to do with the Olympics (the Games themselves, which open Friday, are small compared with the size of the economy), are being felt worldwide.

China's slowing growth is one reason that gasoline prices have fallen in the United States, for example. Similarly, world prices for metals like copper, tin, zinc and aluminum have tumbled in the last several weeks, as voracious Chinese factories have closed, or cut back their consumption. But while China's difficulties may reduce inflationary pressures around the world, they threaten to slow further the already tenuous global economic growth.

Continued at NYTimes



New York Times

Goldmau.com comment:

After several years where the focus has been mainly on tight commodity supplies, now it seems that the markets are finally focusing more on the implications of rapidly weakening demand from China and India due to the weakening in the U.S. economy. If the U.S.'s consumer data picks up in the 2nd half of '08 or next year, then the demand trend will most likely be reversed.

Commentary courtesy David Cai, Goldmau.com analyst.

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