Once again, crude is leading bullion around by the nose, causing the price of gold to track a presumably doomed energy rally that has been wrongly attributed to "tensions" between the U.S. and Russia. Of course, nothing of the sort is driving oil quotes higher; it is short-covering, is all, and it is unlikely to last. (When was the last time we heard the likes of Katie Couric or Tom Brokaw explain that a stock or commodity went bonkers because it had been deeply oversold?) We expect this latest wilding spree in the energy patch to carry oil into the mid- to upper $120s before prices fall anew. In the meantime, we'll be waving a yellow flag in the chat room, lest subscribers grow cocksure about the price of gold and silver going to the moon on this run-up.

With respect to the stock market, it is not the yellow flag we are waving but a red one -- to warn against shorting too aggressively right now. Although we can think of no good reason for stocks to explode from these levels, in a bear market such as this one any of a half-dozen bad reasons will always suffice. Under the circumstances, those looking to get short yesterday evidently weren't paying heed to the stubborn reluctance of stocks to go down when the price of crude was soaring. If crude had instead fallen, it's likely the Dow would have been up 300 points rather than a mere 13.

In the Rick's Picks chat room, we noted our "EXTREME" bullishness about midway into the session. Oil was up $6.20 a barrel at the time, and the Dow Industrials, off 65 points after opening down 100, were showing determined resistance to further selling. The gap-down opening was such an obvious rip-off by the specialists that only widows, orphans and pensioners could have been tricked into selling at such rotten prices. You can be certain that when specialists open a market that has been sold down overnight, they will discount their bids to fully anticipate a torrent of sell-at-the-market orders on the bell. This they did with their usual, artful brazenness; then, with selling exhausted, they ran stocks higher without much effort. Oil's huge gains may have slowed DaBoyz' carny-game maneuvers just a tad, but it was plain to see that the strong hands that bought on the opening had confident control of stocks all day long. We expect this crew to be out in force when stocks start trading on Friday, and to give shorts reason to be nervous about taking their positions home over the weekend.