Mark’s Insight

Science and Pseudoscience

I like to think that we are all at least somewhat environmentalist. Whether it is recycling the newspapers and beverage containers to actively calling for environmental bans on pesticides and CFC's, we should all be concerned with how we affect the planet we live on. I do however think that we need to believe in our ability to adapt, explore and prosper and also to take environmentalists predictions with at least a grain of salt.

Let's review some of the environmentalists predictions over the last 100 or so years.

In 1885 the US Geological Survey announced there was “little or no chance” of oil being discovered in California, Kansa or Texas. In 1939 the US Department of the Interior said American oil supplies would only last another 13 years.

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Colin’s Insight

Energy for the long haul

Is there going to be an increasing demand for energy over the long haul? We certainly think so.

I was attending a conference some weeks ago and the keynote speaker was lamenting the rising cost of gas at the pump, and the crowd was enthusiastically agreeing with him. Then the speaker did something interesting, and asked the crowd “how many of you stopped driving your cars when gas hit $75 per tank?” No hands went up. “How many of you will stop driving at $100 per tank?” Still no hands went up. He was up to $300 per tank before a significant number of hands were raised – which means that the public's tolerance for “pain at the pump” has a long way to go before we start to vote with our wallets, and simply stop buying.

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Arni’s Insight

A change is coming, that is guaranteed!

It's the summer of 2008 not the summer of 1999 when gold traded slightly below $254 /oz. As investors we ALL love to speculate and hypothesize about the “what if's”. However it is much more prudent to live with clarity and then examine and invest “in the facts”. Trends are very real there's no question just look at Uranium and Potash two great examples of momentum driven markets (both up and down). Uranium by the way is very far from being over (more on that in future commentaries).

To the facts: the US economy is slowing, the US dollar is weakening, the banks have lost the confidence of global investors and the biggest threat of all global investment liquidity is declining. There is a flight to security, without question capital is searching for safe havens, and this continued interest for financial security will be the underlying driver for gold. All commodities are driven by supply and demand. So if demand is increasing what does the supply side of the balance sheet look like? Short Answer: it's declining…

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