Goldmau.com Contributed Commentaries

Portfolio Manager Interview: Warren Buffett

Tue, 20 Jan 2009 19:40:30 GMT

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, right now fear is. I mean, you're seeing it everyplace. You saw it at-- in the sales of almost every item at-- at Christmas. There's a lot of fear throughout the country. Even-- even with people whose jobs are fine, and who have money in the bank. But they-- they're worried.

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Jim Rogers Says Buy These By Andrew Mickey

Tue, 20 Jan 2009 17:01:29 GMT

"Historically, the way you make money in times like these is that you find things where the fundamentals are unimpaired." - Jim Rogers

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2009, Depression or recession? By Claude Cormier

Tue, 20 Jan 2009 17:00:35 GMT

Stock markets all over the world have collapsed losing on average 50% of their value or something in the neighborhood of $25 trillion US dollars. Unemployment is rising everywhere. Economies are contracting at a rapid pace. We read more...

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John Lee's Calls On Gold And Various Markets For 2009

Tue, 20 Jan 2009 16:59:48 GMT

Gold has faired very well while all other asset classes endured severe correction in 2008. Gold right now is near its historic high compared to oil and copper. It is an emotional investment, which makes the top and bottom difficult to call.

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BMO's Donald Coxe, Global Portfolio Strategist Conference Call

Tue, 20 Jan 2009 16:59:07 GMT

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Prolonged Risk Aversion Until Obamas Inauguration By Ashraf Laidi

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 21:45:13 GMT

Prolonged risk aversion is expected to ensue until Tuesdays presidential inauguration brings in a temporary feel good rally.

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Portfolio Manager Interview: David Swensen from Yale University's Endowment

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 21:44:32 GMT

He isn't a household name. But as the Yale University's endowment's chief investment officer for two decades, David Swensen has earned a reputation as one of the world's savviest and most successful investors.

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The Rule of Law Collapses By David Morgan

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 21:43:59 GMT

Credit card debt is defaulting, the commercial real estate market is fading, unemployment continues to increase, and pension plans and insurance companies may not be as safe as once thought. All of these factors will weigh in on people globally who...

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Portfolio Manager Interview: David Swensen from Yale University's Endowment

Tue, 13 Jan 2009 20:34:12 GMT

Good Things Come to Those Who "Weight" By Andrew Mickey

Tue, 13 Jan 2009 20:33:31 GMT

There's nothing like a bubble to make the markets really exciting. You can make a lot of money in bubbles' if you get out in time (emphasis on the "if").

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Why Commodity Bull Eric Bolling Is Short Gold

Fri, 09 Jan 2009 16:38:29 GMT

Eric Bolling, a former NYMEX commodity trader, believes massive government spending will devalue the dollar and ultimately benefit commodities.

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Robots, Not Roads By Eliot Spitzer

Fri, 09 Jan 2009 16:32:56 GMT

The incoming Obama administration and Congress are planning a huge fiscal stimulus package. They hope that such a stimulus will catalyze an economic turnaround and be a cornerstone of a "New New Deal."

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Dennis Gartman Year End Market Review Conference Call

Fri, 09 Jan 2009 16:31:50 GMT

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2009 Off To A Shaky Yet Good Start By Pam and Mary Anne

Fri, 09 Jan 2009 16:31:10 GMT

The gold price ended the year up for the eighth consecutive year, making it the second best investment after bonds in 2008. The base metals, platinum and palladium are now following gold's lead in a rebound rise, while bond prices fell off their perch, and oil continues to bottom.

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Investing in Oil and Gas: A How to Guide

Wed, 31 Dec 2008 17:18:15 GMT

Portable Alpha: What's All the Buzz About?

Wed, 31 Dec 2008 17:17:53 GMT

Gold Ends 2008 Higher for US, UK and Euro Investors By Adrian Ash

Wed, 31 Dec 2008 17:17:25 GMT

The last London Gold Fix of the year also pegged the Gold Price in Euros at €614 for French, German and Italian buyers - more than 7% higher from 12 months ago.

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Gold and Silver in 2009 By James Turk

Wed, 31 Dec 2008 17:16:45 GMT

This letter is the last one for this year, so it's time to look ahead to 2009. It's shaping up to be an ugly year for financial institutions and the economy, but a good one I expect for the precious metals. Here are my 2009 targets:

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You Should Be Getting Excited About 2009 By Andrew Mickey

Wed, 31 Dec 2008 17:16:15 GMT

Sometimes it seems there's just no light at the end of the tunnel. Even those of us who try to look at the bright side of things are getting worn down a bit. On the surface, it seems like there is nothing good coming around the corner.

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Don Coxe Views of 2009

Mon, 29 Dec 2008 19:44:52 GMT

BMO's Donald Coxe, Global Portfolio Strategist Weekly Conference Call

Mon, 29 Dec 2008 19:44:23 GMT

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Seeing Through Wall Street By Eliot Spitzer

Mon, 29 Dec 2008 17:15:22 GMT

Restoring trust to the economy will require bringing transparency to the markets.

There is an odd symmetry to a year that began with a subprime meltdown-initially affecting those at the lower end of the economic spectrum, before it lit the fuse that burned down the entire house...

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Gold Hits 12-Week High for Dollar Investors on Israeli Attacks - Adrian Ash

Mon, 29 Dec 2008 17:14:39 GMT

THE PRICE OF GOLD jumped once again in thin Asian trade early Monday, adding to Boxing Day's 3% gain to reach an AM Gold Fix in London of $881 an ounce - the best level vs. the Dollar since Oct. 10th.

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Investments for 2009 - Sy Harding

Mon, 29 Dec 2008 17:14:06 GMT

Retail sales are down. Autos and the housing industry are still in the dumps. The financial sector may be under repair - or not. No one knows at this point.

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Global Central Bank Focus - All In - PIMCO

Mon, 29 Dec 2008 17:13:31 GMT

(A conversation with Bun Bun, the author's Netherlands Dwarf pet bunny and early-morning debating partner.)

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Why Short Sector ETFs Aren't So Smart - Eric Oberg

Tue, 23 Dec 2008 19:30:00 GMT

This article is by Eric Oberg, who worked in fixed income, currencies and commodities for Goldman Sachs for 17 years before retiring as a managing director.

What would you say if you bought an index fund, only to find out that it lagged the benchmark by 30%? 80%? Over 100%? I am sure you'd be dismayed, disappointed and disgruntled.

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A Daily Snapshot Of Market Moving Developments - John Mauldin

Tue, 23 Dec 2008 16:41:12 GMT

Have you done your Christmas shopping yet? Research shows that more of us are putting it off in expectations of better prices. In other words deflationary expectations! The prices I have seen while out shopping the past few weeks are simply amazing.

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The Best 3 Ways to Give the Gift of Prosperity - Andrew Mickey

Tue, 23 Dec 2008 16:40:26 GMT

They're the worst possible gift you can give a grandchild, niece, nephew, or any other young person in your life despite they're ongoing popularity. You'd never know how bad they are from the high praise they receive.

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A Better Car-Bailout Plan - Eliot Spitzer

Tue, 23 Dec 2008 16:39:29 GMT

A crisis is a terrible thing to waste. This moment of decision about the auto bailout should be when we summon the courage to reject broken policies, not just to throw more capital at them; use market forces to drive restructuring,

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BMO's Donald Coxe Global Portfolio Strategist Conference Call

Tue, 23 Dec 2008 16:38:41 GMT

As Chairman and Chief Strategist of Harris Investment Management in Chicago, Chairman of Jones Heward Investments in Toronto, Donald Coxe is directly involved in the investment of billions in equity and fixed income assets.

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The great bond market crash of 2009 - Martin Hutchinson

Wed, 12 Nov 2008 21:45:19 GMT

Investors have spent the last few weeks bemoaning the devastation to their portfolios caused by the stock market downturn, which if it does not produce recovery by year-end will have made 2008 the worst stock market year since 1937.

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The End of Wall Street by Author of Liar's Poker - Michael Lewis

Wed, 12 Nov 2008 21:44:49 GMT

The era that defined Wall Street is finally, officially over. Michael Lewis, who chronicled its excess in Liar's Poker, returns to his old haunt to figure out what went wrong.

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Headwinds Mount - Danielle Park

Wed, 12 Nov 2008 21:44:20 GMT

Retrospective economic evidence has now prompted most members of NBER to individually acknowledge that the US is in...

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Investors Should Fear This Payday - Guy Bennett

Wed, 12 Nov 2008 21:43:44 GMT

A pure free market economy is great on paper. Goods and services are exchanged under conditions mutually agreed upon by the seller and the buyer. The efficiency of the system is enforced by the natural laws of supply and demand, leading to lower pricing and increased quality of service.

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Feed the World - and Boost Returns - Don Coxe

Mon, 10 Nov 2008 23:44:24 GMT

ONCE A WEEK, LOADS OF INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS DROP whatever they're doing to tune in to Donald Coxe's strategy conference calls. Small wonder. With a keen sense of history and wry sense of humor...

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Is There Enough Investor Fear? - Sy Harding

Mon, 10 Nov 2008 23:41:36 GMT

Investor sentiment is an important tool in market-timing, often indicating an approaching reversal in the market's direction.

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John Lee's November Trading Log Part 1 - John Lee

Mon, 10 Nov 2008 23:39:44 GMT

Which stocks are John watching in November? Read about his favourite plays in his biweekly mining stock update.

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INFRASTRUCTURE TACTICS - Aaron Hoddinott

Mon, 10 Nov 2008 23:39:08 GMT

As commodity prices plummet and world GDP levels come tumbling down, the credit crisis is showing signs of a recovery.

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Meredith Whitney View on the Market Interview Nov 10 - Meredith Whitney

Mon, 10 Nov 2008 23:38:34 GMT

18 months into the credit crisis, Oppenheimer bank analyst Meredith Whitney says she is still "equally worried" ...

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Renegade Trader Makes $1.7 Billion in Bear Market - Guy Bennett

Mon, 10 Nov 2008 23:37:52 GMT

Last month as the Dow dropped 20% and portfolios got battered, one investor was prepared. Nassim Nicholas Taleb...

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The Problem With Deleveraging - John Mauldin

Mon, 10 Nov 2008 23:37:07 GMT

In general, we consider it a good thing to save money and to "owe no man anything save love." But what happens when a debt-happy society wakes up and decides that saving is a good thing for everybody?

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Toeing in with a dead neutral bias - Danielle Park

Thu, 06 Nov 2008 18:51:33 GMT

Over the past couple of weeks I have written that we were getting close to a technical buy on some of the broad equity markets.

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Obama to the Rescue? - John Browne

Thu, 06 Nov 2008 18:50:53 GMT

Having received 62.5 million votes, Barack Obama has earned a spectacular personal victory and a clear mandate to bring some form of change to the United States . Obama's decisive and masterly election campaign...

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Where the Wild Cats Howl, Part II - Adrian Ash

Thu, 06 Nov 2008 18:03:48 GMT

The INVESTMENT TRUST MANUAL for 1928 "was a little book," reports Robert L.Smitley in his Popular Financial Delusions .

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Zinc to Shine from 2-year Doldrums: featuring Donner Metals - John Lee

Tue, 21 Oct 2008 00:16:48 GMT

Centuries before zinc was discovered in the metallic form, its ores were used for making brass and zinc compounds, its ores were used for healing wounds and sore eyes.

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The "Arb" Game is Over - Doug Noland

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 18:12:59 GMT

For the week, the Dow rallied 4.7% (down 33.3% y-t-d) and the S&P500 rose 4.6% (down 35.9%). Economically-sensitive issues, however...

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Marco Polo Goes West - Adrian Ash

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 18:12:20 GMT

CREATING MONEY from nothing to try and keep the economy stoked is far from a modern invention.

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Trying To Find A Bottom - David Chapman

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 18:11:53 GMT

This past week was one of the wildest in our memory. The VIX indicator, a measure of fear and greed and volatility in the market, went above 80 before reversing and closing over 10 points lower.

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The Economic Blue Screen of Death - John Mauldin

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 18:11:16 GMT

This week I am in California giving two speeches to the Financial Planning Associations of San Diego and Orange County.

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Does This Say the Market Could Have a Short Term Upside Move? - Marty Chenard

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 18:07:24 GMT

This morning we will address two issues: Warren Buffett, and "Is the market trying to establish a short term bottom?

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Criminal Intent - James West

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 18:06:47 GMT

Conspicuously absent from the international dialogue on global financial disaster is the idea of criminal intent and/or negligence.

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Gold's New Records - James Turk

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 18:06:13 GMT

Gold closed last week and made new record highs this week against the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Indian rupee, South African rand and British pound. Here are gold's long-term charts against these currencies.

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Applying Nicholas Darvas' Box Theory to Today's Stock Market - Michael Swanson

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 18:05:03 GMT

Is the market going up or down? That is the question everyone wants to answer right now. They want to know if their losses are going to come to an end. People are incredibly anxious and nervous right now.

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Nothing to Fear but McFear Itself - Bill Gross

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 18:03:57 GMT

We are to the point of fearing fear itself. America in all its resplendent free market capitalistic glory is on the auction block with few bidders.

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Buy American. I Am. - Warren E. Buffett

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 18:03:28 GMT

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy...

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Capitalism Without Capital? - Ron Paul

Tue, 14 Oct 2008 20:01:36 GMT

It has been long understood that our federal government is going deeper into debt, consistently raising the debt ceiling and demonstrating no fiscal restraint. In recent years, debt ceiling increases have been ...

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Is the Stock Market Crash Over? - Michael Swanson

Tue, 14 Oct 2008 20:01:11 GMT

Chaos and uncertainty rule in this market. People are scared and are in a panic. I'm sure you feel it yourself, especially if you have 401K's or other long-term investments in the stock market. Even though I've made a lot of money ...

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Financial History in the Making - Mary Anne and Pamela Aden

Tue, 14 Oct 2008 20:00:32 GMT

So much has happened this month, where to begin? It's been a month to end all months with one monumental crisis following another.

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How Credit Crises Begin and End - Clif Droke

Tue, 14 Oct 2008 19:59:52 GMT

From the standpoint of investor sentiment the credit crisis has reached the point of maximum saturation. Every TV news program and political commentator, every newspaper and every magazine in town is writing about it.

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Gold Slips as World Equities Leap Again - Adrian Ash

Tue, 14 Oct 2008 19:59:13 GMT

SPOT GOLD PRICES slid from an overnight rally as the US opening drew near on Tuesday, trading 3% lower against most major currencies from this time last week while world stock markets continued...

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Silver - What's Left? - David Morgan

Fri, 10 Oct 2008 20:22:27 GMT

The silver market can be divided into several sub categories, such as collectible silver, which might include some silverware or fine jewelry items or certain period silver from silversmiths both modern and ancient.

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Gold Breaks Yet More All-Time Highs as "Greater Crash" Knocks One-Fifth Off Global Equities - Adrian Ash

Fri, 10 Oct 2008 20:21:52 GMT

SPOT GOLD PRICES to a new 11-week high early Friday before slipping back to $905 an ounce for US investors as world stock markets plunged into what's now the worst five-day crash since the wipe-out of Oct. 1987.

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The Market is Now in Phase 3: The De-leveraging Margin Debt - Marty Chenard

Fri, 10 Oct 2008 20:21:09 GMT

Some of you may remember the NYSE Margin chart I posted in late 2007. Basically, it showed that 2007 margin levels were starting to drop from an "extreme" level.

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Gold Dips as Global Asset Deflation Continues to Hit Stocks, Bonds & Commodities - Adrian Ash

Thu, 09 Oct 2008 21:15:30 GMT

SPOT GOLD PRICES slipped almost 4% on Thursday against most major currencies, but held above $886 an ounce while world stock markets, bonds and commodities sank once again as the global asset deflation wore on. ...

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Porky the Bailout Bill - Michael Pento

Thu, 09 Oct 2008 21:14:59 GMT

Buried in the bailout bill signed into law on Friday was a plethora of tax incentives and increases in government intrusion into our privacy. Following in the spirit of the Patriot Act, this new law now allows the ...

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Weapons of Financial Mass Destruction - Gary Dorsch

Thu, 09 Oct 2008 21:14:13 GMT

The latest downward spiral in the global commodity and stock markets, coinciding with several high profile bank failures, is conjuring up fears of the calamities of the Great Depression of the 1930's.

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Recapitalizations - Rate Cuts - Yen becomes Hard Currency - Axel Merk

Thu, 09 Oct 2008 21:13:37 GMT

Europe was all but written off on Tuesday when Gordon Brown, the UK prime minister announced late in the day that £50 billion (about $85 billion) may be injected into several of the biggest banks.

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Roger Wiegand: Predicting a "Severe Bull Market" for Gold - The Gold Report

Thu, 09 Oct 2008 21:12:44 GMT

Roger Wiegand: The call was pretty accurate, although the oversell was surprisingly deep. The reason was the hedge funds had gotten into a position where...

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Gold Leaps to New Record Highs on 0.5% Cut to World Interest Rates - Adrian Ash

Thu, 09 Oct 2008 21:12:00 GMT

SPOT GOLD PRICES leapt once again in London trade on Wednesday, reaching $915 an ounce for US investors as the US Federal Reserve led a co-ordinated cut of 0.5% to major world interest rates.

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Kerry Smith: Putting Together a Portfolio During Trying Times

Mon, 06 Oct 2008 19:50:28 GMT

Kerry Smith: Big picture, I would expect the U.S. dollar to trend lower over time. That should be positive for gold and to a lesser extent the commodities. Short term, there's so much uncertainty and scrambling to get liquidity and cash, with hedge funds blowing up,...

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The Bailout Bill Will Do Nothing for the Real Economy - Michael Swanson

Mon, 06 Oct 2008 19:46:52 GMT

We are on the edge of pure fear and panic when it comes to the stock market. By just about every indicator you may use to measure the market it is extremely oversold and ready for a bottom. The number of stocks below their 20, 50...

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Gold Leaps as Stocks, Oil & Commodities Tumble on "Failed Bail-Out" Deflation Fears - Adrian Ash

Mon, 06 Oct 2008 19:45:41 GMT

SPOT GOLD PRICES jumped $34 early in London on Monday, bouncing well above last Friday's low at $820 to touch $860 an ounce as world stock markets sank in the face of desperate promises of Tax-Funded Aid from major governments.

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The Wall Street Bust - Doug Noland

Mon, 06 Oct 2008 19:45:00 GMT

For the week, the Dow was hit for 7.3% (down 22.2% y-t-d), and the S&P500 was clobbered for 9.4% (down 25.1%). Economically-sensitive stocks were, again, pounded. The Morgan Stanley Cyclicals sank 14.2% (down 30.8%), and the Transports dropped 13.0% (down 9.5%).

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The Curve in the Road - JohnJohn Mauldin

Mon, 06 Oct 2008 19:44:08 GMT

The "Bailout Plan" was passed. Will it work? The answer depends on what your definition of "work" is. If by work you mean no more government intervention and no further costly programs and a functioning market...

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Impending Economic Collapse In The U.S. And Death Of Democracy... - Clive Maund

Mon, 06 Oct 2008 19:43:30 GMT

Politicians worship money and power. Every politician worth his salt secretly aspires to be a dictator, although they dare not admit this as it is not exactly politically correct.

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High Gold Prices "Here to Stay" as Financial Panic Sees Socialists Fight to Save Capitalism - Adrian Ash

Wed, 01 Oct 2008 18:20:27 GMT

THE PRICE OF SPOT GOLD bounced 1.6% from an overnight low of $860 on Wednesday, steadying at $876 an ounce as Western stock markets ticked higher despite a raft of miserable Eurozone data.

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Lipstick on a Bailout - Ron Paul

Wed, 01 Oct 2008 18:19:58 GMT

This time last week, the biggest bailout in the history of the world seemed to be a fait accompli. Last weekend, the Fed Chairman and the Secretary of the Treasury had harsh words of doom and gloom for Congressional leaders, ...

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Louis James: "I'm buying all the bullion I can" - The Gold Report

Wed, 01 Oct 2008 18:19:25 GMT

The Gold Report: When we last spoke in December, you talked about the gold market being governed as much by market psychology as by demand and supply fundamentals.

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Government bail out plans are not about saving the stock market - Danielle Park

Wed, 01 Oct 2008 18:18:39 GMT

Stock markets are plunging today supposedly in response to uncertainty over the Paulson bail out in the US. Actually that is not true.

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Junior resource valuations "being thrown out the window" - John Lee

Wed, 01 Oct 2008 18:17:28 GMT

Valuations in the junior resource space are being thrown out the window as the markets crumble to a degree perhaps not seen ever before, says John Lee, portfolio manager with Mau Capital Management LLC.

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Day Ahead In US Financial Markets - MERK Investment

Wed, 01 Oct 2008 18:16:57 GMT

The failure of the TARP on the floor of the House of Representatives has moved action towards overnight trading in Asia and early morning action in Europe. With the credit markets currently jammed up, volatility should be expected to shape the overnight action and the direction of US markets in early morning trading Tuesday.

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Back from the Future: Gold in January 2012 - Casey Research

Wed, 01 Oct 2008 18:15:18 GMT

What's more valuable than one ounce of gold? How about the news release I brought back with me from the future that reveals the price of gold then ?

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Haste Makes Waste - John Mauldin

Wed, 01 Oct 2008 18:14:36 GMT

The purpose of Outside the Box is to present views which cause us to think through our basic assumptions.

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The Stock Market Meltdown and the Bailout Blues - Michael Swanson

Wed, 01 Oct 2008 18:14:00 GMT

I'm writing this around 6:00 AM and the market futures are up this morning following yesterday's 777 point drubbing of the DOW, which came after the House of Representatives voted no against the Wall Street bailout package.

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Gold: Institutions & Private Banks "Will Reconsider Strategy" as Financial Crisis Hits Belgium, Germany, Iceland and UK - Adrian Ash

Wed, 01 Oct 2008 18:13:00 GMT

SPOT GOLD BULLION PRICES recovered an early 1% dip vs. the Dollar and leapt against other key currencies on Monday, as a wave of bank failures and emergency rescues across Europe drove Treasury bond prices higher, ...

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Is Purchasing $700 billion of Toxic Assets the Best Way to Recapitalize the Financial System? No! - Nouriel Roubini

Wed, 01 Oct 2008 18:10:57 GMT

Is Purchasing $700 billion of Toxic Assets the Best Way to Recapitalize the Financial System? No! It is Rather a Disgrace and Rip-Off Benefitting only the Shareholders and Unsecured Creditors of Banks

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Who's Afraid of a Big, Bad Bailout? - John Mauldin

Wed, 01 Oct 2008 18:10:18 GMT

Flying last Tuesday, overnight from Cape Town in South Africa to London, I read in the Financial Times that Republican Congressman Joe Barton of Texas was quoted as saying (this is from memory, so it is not exact) that he had difficulty voting for..

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Changed Financial Landscape - Doug Noland

Wed, 01 Oct 2008 18:09:31 GMT

The stock market was almost a sideshow... For the week, the Dow dropped 2.2% (down 16% y-t-d), and the S&P500 was hit for 3.3% (down 17.4%).

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Oh Stop It! Youre Killing Me... - Adrian Ash

Mon, 29 Sep 2008 05:48:37 GMT

WE LOVE THIS NUGGET of irony, idiocy or just plain cant so much, we have to repeat it - clutching our sides and doubling-up in laughter, tears streaming down our disbelieving faces:

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Changed Financial Landscape - Doug Noland

Mon, 29 Sep 2008 05:48:02 GMT

The stock market was almost a sideshow... For the week, the Dow dropped 2.2% (down 16% y-t-d), and the S&P500 was hit for 3.3% (down 17.4%). Economically-sensitive stocks were under pressure. The Transports sank 6.9% (up 3.9%), ...

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Who's Afraid of a Big, Bad Bailout? - John Mauldin

Mon, 29 Sep 2008 05:47:11 GMT

Flying last Tuesday, overnight from Cape Town in South Africa to London, I read in the Financial Times that Republican Congressman Joe Barton of Texas was quoted as saying...

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Observations on a Crisis - John Mauldin

Tue, 23 Sep 2008 22:05:21 GMT

This week we look at a very solid piece of analysis on the world economy from my friends and London business partners Niels Jensen and Jan Wilhelmsen of Absolute Return Partners ...

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Misdirected Credit Runs Unabated - Doug Noland

Tue, 23 Sep 2008 22:04:38 GMT

When I titled last week's piece "Too Big to Suffer a Loss" I had no real inkling of what the past week would have in store. Actually, I had presumed that the Treasury and Fed wouldn't allow Lehman to fail.

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Disastrous Policies - Steve Saville

Tue, 23 Sep 2008 22:04:06 GMT

The US economy has not been remotely close to a "free market" for a long time. Up until recently freedom was eroding at a gradual pace, but the pace of erosion has just accelerated in dramatic fashion.

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Bailout Won't Do Jack, Cutting Estimates - Meredith Whitney

Tue, 23 Sep 2008 22:03:31 GMT

Meredith Whitney weighs in on the bailout plan, saying it won't help bank fundamentals in the foreseeable future. She also whacks her estimates on Bank of America (BAC), Wachovia (WB), et al.

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Betting on Financial Armageddon - John Mauldin

Tue, 23 Sep 2008 00:37:25 GMT

My Dad used to tell me there is no accounting for standards when looking at something that seemed odd. Today, we have faulty standards for accounting that are ripping apart the fabric of the world's economy.

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Gold Extends 13% Gain as Investors "Seek Transparency" with Physical Metal - Adrian Ash

Tue, 23 Sep 2008 00:36:54 GMT

GOLD PRICES extended last week's 13% gain early Monday, nearing Wednesday's six-week high of $892 per ounce as the US Dollar tumbled on the foreign exchanges and world stock markets retreated from Friday's "big bail out" surge.

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Gold Thoughts - Ned W. Schmidt

Tue, 23 Sep 2008 00:36:18 GMT

U.S. Secretary of the Treasury & Free Lunches has done Gold investors an incredible favor. While not benefiting immediately as did those owning bank stocks, we will over time.

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How to Make a Bad Deal - Michael Pento

Tue, 23 Sep 2008 00:35:45 GMT

I hope those who want to sharpen their skills at the art of negotiations are watching Hank Paulson and learning exactly what not to do.

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Nightmare On Wall Street - David Chapman

Tue, 23 Sep 2008 00:35:14 GMT

The events of the past couple of weeks or so are piling up so quickly, our head is spinning. The daily gyrations of the market has everyone running for the Maalox, we are sure.

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Silver Is the ONLY Asset that Is NOT Someone Else's Liability - David Morgan

Tue, 23 Sep 2008 00:34:37 GMT

Before sending me an e-mail telling me I am wrong, let me admit it!! I am WRONG -- silver is not the only asset that is not someone else's liability.

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Junior Mining Stock Crisis - Adam Hamilton

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 18:24:54 GMT

Commodities investors were treated to an extraordinary event this week when gold skyrocketed 11.1% in a single trading day!

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The Russian Resurgence and the New-Old Front - John Mauldin

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 18:24:17 GMT

It's been a hell of a few weeks, so let's start with a little much-needed levity. Two friends, a Trader and an Investor, walk up to the roulette wheel in a casino. They watch a guy hogging the table hit on his first spin.

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The AIG Bailout: What's Next? - Casey Research

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 18:23:45 GMT

Sunday, Sept. 14: Secretary Paulson finally makes a brave decision; enough is enough, let Lehman go bust. After all, the federal government shouldn't be rescuing every financial institution that stumbles or should it?

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Gold up to $905: Finally, the Wait is Over

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 18:14:05 GMT

The financial crisis is fast unfolding as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Washington Mutual and Wachovia are joining Countrywide, Bear Stearns and company in their disappearing acts.

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The Real Interest Rate - Steve Saville

Tue, 16 Sep 2008 22:03:45 GMT

The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate adjusted to account for the currency's loss of purchasing power.

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The Fall of Lehman and The Terrible Lessons of Bear Stearns - John Mauldin

Tue, 16 Sep 2008 22:03:14 GMT

The weekend has brought us events that can only be described in large, over-the-top terms. The Fed agreeing to take equity on its balance sheet? How bad can things really be?

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In Government We Trust? Part 3 - Ron Paul

Tue, 16 Sep 2008 22:02:26 GMT

I've discussed just a few benefits of sound money in the last two weeks, and contrasted them to the perils of fiat currency.

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Federal Reserve lowers standards for collateral from primary dealers

Mon, 15 Sep 2008 21:29:25 GMT

The Federal Reserve Board on Sunday announced several initiatives to provide additional support to financial markets, including enhancements to its existing liquidity facilities.

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Housing: Are We Near the Bottom? - John Mauldin

Mon, 15 Sep 2008 21:29:00 GMT

This week we look at the housing market in some detail. When can we expect it to turn around? Part of the problem is that a new wave of foreclosures is coming due...

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Too Big to Suffer a Loss - Doug Noland

Mon, 15 Sep 2008 21:28:18 GMT

For the week, the Dow gained 1.8% (down 13.9% y-t-d) and the S&P500 increased 0.8% (down 14.8%). The Utilities rose 2.6% (down 14.8%), and the Morgan Stanley Consumer index gained 2.2% (down 5.1%).

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This is Deleveraging Not Deflation - Michael Swanson

Mon, 15 Sep 2008 21:27:37 GMT

I went out of town last week to the Resource Investment Conference in Las Vegas. I'll get to that in a second, but so much is happening that this is going to be a longer message than usual. This weekend we are seeing Lehman go broke,...

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Gold Sinks Again as Liquidation Hits All Asset Classes - Adrian Ash

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 22:42:07 GMT

THE PRICE OF GOLD fell yet again early in London on Thursday, slumping from an overnight floor of $756 to reach a new 11-month low at $739 per ounce.

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Trying to Pump Up What's Busted - Adrian Ash

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 19:02:39 GMT

EVIL DAYS indeed. Scared and scarred by losses in all other assets, the world's wealth suddenly wants to sit in the safety of US Dollars and US Treasury bonds.

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"Maverick McCain" and the Resurrection of the US$ - Gary Dorsch

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 18:10:59 GMT

"As soon as you think you've got the key to the stock market, they change the lock," lamented Joe Granville, who is mostly remembered for his bearish calls on the US stock market during the 1970's, 1980's, and the 1990's.

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The Hidden Bailout Of $1.4 Trillion In Fannie / Freddie Credit-Default Swaps - Daniel R. Amerman

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 17:35:18 GMT

Something extraordinary happened on Monday, September the 8th, 2008. The government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac triggered the pending settlement of $1.4 trillion in credit-default swaps.

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Risk Aversion Drives JPY and GBP in Opposite Ways - Ashraf Laidi

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 17:34:37 GMT

Now that US equity indices have erased all of Monday's gains less than 24-hours after the US Treasury's takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie, we can further better deduce the extent of negative sentiment prevailing in US and overseas markets.

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The Rebirth Of Gold And Silver - Roland Watson

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 17:33:59 GMT

Back in April I wrote an article entitled "The Death of Gold" which suggested a longer term correction was on the cards for gold. I was partly led to that conclusion by the headline article below from The London Times dated 14th March 2008.

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The Biggest Bailout of All Time - Casey Research

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 00:42:53 GMT

On Sunday, September 7, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, flanked by James Lockhart, the new conservator from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, announced a plan to take over the operation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and to guarantee their debt.

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Bernanke Has Kept His Helicopters Grounded...So Far - Steve Saville

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 17:45:19 GMT

In late 2002, when deflation fears were running rampant through the financial markets, a little known Fed governor by the name of Ben Bernanke thrust himself into the glare of publicity by giving a speech in which he explained ...

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Thinking Like "Fat Tony" - James Turk

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 05:56:10 GMT

There was a thought-provoking book published last year entitled The Black Swan . It provides an insightful perspective into seemingly improbable events (i.e., a 'black swan') and our thinking that surrounds them.

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In Government We Trust? Part 2 - Ron Paul

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 05:55:42 GMT

Last week I discussed how sound money contributes to peaceful relationships around the world. It is not gold, in and of itself that excites me, but the many benefits of sound money. Another benefit is financial security.

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Paulsons Quick Draw - Peter Schiff

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 05:55:13 GMT

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, the man who said that subprime was contained and that the Bazooka in his pocket would never be used, now assures us that the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be costless to taxpayers.

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Does the Buck Stop Here? - James Turk

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 00:17:28 GMT

From its low on July 15th, the US Dollar Index has now rallied 9.8%, which equates to an eye-popping 69.0% annualized rate. It is the dollar's first meaningful bear market rally in three years, and I call it a bear market rally on purpose.

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Pick Away at Bargains Until Prices Pick Up - David Coffin

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 23:24:25 GMT

The Gold Report: Would you say gold is still in a correction or do you think it's over? And what's going on with the juniors? Why do they seem to be so unloved?

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Operation Melt Down, Part III - Adrian Ash

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 23:23:41 GMT

ONCE UPON A TIME money meant gold (and ever less silver), freely exchanged between private individuals looking to buy and sell, invest and spend.

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Gold Mining Challenges 2 - Scott Wright

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 23:23:09 GMT

With seven consecutive years of rising gold prices, the gold mining industry has had ample reason to boost output. The demand for gold has grown and will continue to grow and legendary profits can be won for shareholders.

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Solzhenitsyn and the Struggle for Russia's Soul - John Mauldin

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 23:22:30 GMT

As we search for "the" driver of financial markets, we look at all kinds of things. We pore over government statistics, company financial statements, and analyst research, trying to find that one nugget that will give us a glimpse of the future.

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Sell the First of May, Return after Labor Day - David Morgan

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 23:21:04 GMT

The above adage is well known by precious-metals investors; in fact I used this quote in one of our monthly reports. I recall how many inquiries we received, asking if indeed I thought this summer (2008) would show the pattern similar to most summers...

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Real US Housing Losses Are $6 Trillion - Daniel R. Amerman

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 23:20:13 GMT

Actual losses in the US real estate market are much higher than what you have been reading in the newspapers recently. Using a combination of official government statistics and the most widely used index of housing values,...

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The Bear Market is Smashing Everything - Michael Swanson

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 23:19:19 GMT

On Thursday the DOW fell over 300 points. I made a killing on my short positions, but gold stocks fell hard too. Luckily I got stopped out for a small loss the day before, but nonetheless I don't like seeing gold and commodities drop at all here.

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There's a Bull Market Somewhere? - Bill Gross

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 23:17:16 GMT

OK, if you picked (D), you scored 800 on this part of the exam. Despite their being polar opposites though, I must tell you I was a fan of Lou's and I'm a fan of Jim's even if they occupy(d) the investment stage of public opinion with entirely ...

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The World as We See It - Casey Research

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 23:16:36 GMT

I identify the foundational forces now driving our economy to establish a basis for the investment recommendations you'll read in this advisory in the months to come.

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Gold "Set to Rise 10%" by Year-End on Surging Demand as Central Banks Freeze, Stuck Between Inflation & Recession - Adrian Ash

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 23:15:52 GMT

SPOT GOLD PRICES gave back half of a 1.6% rally at lunchtime in London on Thursday, trading at $809 per ounce as crude oil prices rose and global stock markets fell once again.

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In the Eye of the Storm - John Browne

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 23:14:41 GMT

As we enter the height of the hurricane season, it may be worthwhile to recall, when considering the economy at large, the particular deception that lurks in the "eye" of the storm. After a raging tempest, the sudden appearance of the calm 'eye' can all too easily...

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Stock Market Bears Ready to Strike in September - Michael Swanson

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 23:13:09 GMT

We just had the summer rally. You may have missed it, but the S&P 500 managed to finish the month of August up a whopping 1.1% while the Nasdaq ended with a gain of 1.8%. You might detect some sarcasm here and there is a bit.

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The Big Question - Brady Willett

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 23:12:23 GMT

With U.S. home prices crashing, inflation expectations rising, and consumer confidence plummeting, you would think that the U.S. economy would be shedding jobs at a pace comparable, at minimum, to previous recessions. This hasn't been the case, at least not yet.

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Fact Versus Speculation - Ted Butler

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 23:11:33 GMT

What's happening in the silver and gold markets is, without a doubt, the most sordid scheme in the history of finance. It makes a mockery of financial regulation and the rule of law. It allows a large financial entity, or entities, to rip off the investing public and gouge them for obscene profits.

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Adrian Day: Long-Term Fundamentals Still Good For Gold

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 23:10:25 GMT

Adrian Day: People are still very, very concerned about the dollar and inflation, and rightly so. The core CPI numbers were up .7% in one month. That's a high number and the precise number may be a monthly anomaly, but it's very clear that the trend in prices is up.

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Tale of Two Malls - Paul Tustain

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 18:24:27 GMT

A TEXAN CUSTOMER who came to see me a few months ago told me a story which illustrates the fine mess we're in.

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Market patterns and seasons - Sy Harding

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 18:23:49 GMT

Here's an interesting short-term pattern that has been working so far this year: All but one time this year that the market has moved three or four days in a row in the same direction, the move has halted and the market has moved in the opposite direction for one to four days.

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Gold Slides as Oil Sinks After Gustav; Falling Inflation Hopes Spark Fresh Surge in Cheap Money & Government Spending - Adrian Ash

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 18:23:01 GMT

THE PRICE OF GOLD in Dollars dropped almost 2% at the London opening on Tuesday, sliding to $802 per ounce as crude oil fell at its fastest rate since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.

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Economics and Politics - Howard S. Katz

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 18:22:23 GMT

Gold bugs now face a unique opportunity to profit from the fluctuations in the markets. But in order to understand this it is necessary to understand the relation between economics and politics. The decline in gold from mid-July to mid-August was brutal...

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Gold Supply and Demand - Steve Saville

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 18:21:42 GMT

The gold market analyses put out by the likes of Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS), the World Gold Council (WGC) and most major banks invariably concentrate on things like jewellery demand, new mine supply, and scrap supply.

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Who Holds the Old Maid? - John Mauldin

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 18:18:15 GMT

When is the credit crisis going to end? How will we know? The credit crisis is getting ready to enter its second phase. This week we examine what that means, and what the economic environment will look like over the coming quarters. We also (sadly) re-visit Freddie and Fannie and examine the risks that they put into the markets...

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The US Economy and the World-wide Monetary Disorder - Gerard Jackson

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 18:17:27 GMT

"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon," so said Milton Friedman. After that it was down hill. The Chicago school so defined inflation and deflation that they largely severed the monetary root from which these phenomena spring.

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The US Economy and the World-wide Monetary Disorder - Gerard Jackson

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 18:16:27 GMT

In Government We Trust? Part 1 - Ron Paul

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 18:15:46 GMT

Many who agree with me on a lot of other issues, do not understand my enthusiasm for gold and sound money or why I spend so much time studying and talking about monetary policy.

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Gold Production and Reserves 2 - Scott Wright

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 18:14:52 GMT

As the precious metals summer doldrums come to a close, we need to assess the damage from another season of gold hatred and disdain. Like déjà vu for veteran gold investors, the mainstream financial media took advantage of gold's seasonal weakness to proclaim the death of the Ancient Metal of Kings.

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Let's Get Real about Real Estate - Peter Schiff

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 18:08:50 GMT

Once again, real estate market watchers have pounced on a shred of seemingly positive news to proclaim that the long sought "bottom" is in sight. The routine is becoming extremely stale, but somehow the media never seems to tire of it.

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What I Tell Myself When Gold Sells Off - Casey Research

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 18:06:58 GMT

Psychologists say decisions aren't made simply on what you hear from others but also on what you hear in your own inner dialog. With investing, that can be the kiss of death if you let either fear or euphoria dominate the conversation.

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Operation Melt Down, Part II - Adrian Ash

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 18:06:04 GMT

IT SEEMS AN ODD QUIRK of history that Washington's post-War obsession with its nationalized gold reserves an obsession which Ian Fleming neatly tapped into with Goldfinger in 1959 came so long after what historians call the "classical" Gold Standard ended.

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The Coming Deflation Scare - Steve Saville

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 18:04:56 GMT

The big run-ups in the prices of some commodities during the first half of this year created the general impression that the inflation threat was rising. However, as we noted in a number of TSI commentaries the FEAR of inflation...

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Broken Systems & Dysfunctional Mechanisms - Jim Willie

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 18:03:38 GMT

The highest functions of the financial system have finally broken to the point where smart and connected people are openly making comments. Shortages are acute, to the point where low prices for gold & silver, for instance...

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Gold Set to Close August 9% Down, But Private Investment Still Surging on Geo-Political, Financial Tensions - Adrian Ash

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 18:02:19 GMT

THE PRICE OF GOLD reversed an earlier 1% drop as the Wall Street opening approached on Friday, touching $838 an ounce as Asian stock markets ended the month 3% lower and government bond prices rose.

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Managing Wealth During Bear Markets - Emanuel Balarie

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 18:01:21 GMT

Managing wealth during a bull market is easy. More often than not, it's simply a matter of investing your assets in investments (stock, bonds, and/or real-estate) that will likely benefit from a strong economic environment.

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John Lee published in Financial Post Manager Picks - Financial Post

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 22:54:31 GMT

Readers, I'm happy to announce that the Financial Post, the daily business newspaper of Canada's National Post, has once again published my analysis in their 'Manager Picks' section. I read the Post daily as it's an indispensible resource for anyone investing in Canadian equities.

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Silver Calls - David Morgan

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 22:53:30 GMT

Before you dive too far into this missive, let me state this is NOT about call options on silver. I might address that issue at some point in the future, but this week's commentary is about how I have "called" the silver market.

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The Bull is Still in Charge - Mary Anne and Pamela Aden

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 17:42:22 GMT

The markets have been extremely volatile over the past few weeks. Investors have been spooked and many are wondering what to do, if anything.

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The Goldsmith--Part VI - R.D. Bradshaw

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 17:41:40 GMT

This article is a continuation of this writer's series on the modern goldsmiths and how they cheat and defraud us and manipulate and control the global financial markets to make profits and gains for themselves.

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Gold Recovers One-Third of "Summer Slump"; No New Mining Supply Below $1,200 per Oz - Adrian Ash

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 17:40:59 GMT

THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD BULLION rose yet again in London on Thursday, touching $840 an ounce just ahead of the Wall Street open and recovering almost one-third of the 21% plunge witnessed since mid-July.

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Could Long Term Interest Rates Jump 20% in the Coming Months? - Marty Chenard

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 17:40:24 GMT

First, between November 2007 and March 2008, the 30 year bond yields (Symbol: TYX) formed an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. The projection for this pattern is a yield level of 53 which is 20% higher than yesterday's close.

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Hang in There: Frank Barbera on Why Precious Metals May Power to New All-Time Highs in 2009 - The Gold Report

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 17:39:08 GMT

The Gold Report: What's been going on in the junior market and now in gold? Before this recent downdraft, the juniors were underperforming and the metal was performing much better.

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Operation Melt Down: Part I - How Richard Nixon "Goldfingered" the World - Adrian Ash

Wed, 27 Aug 2008 20:53:46 GMT

FIFTY YEARS AGO - just as the fictional 007 was thwarting Auric Goldfinger's plan to empty Fort Knox and take America's gold to Soviet Moscow - the US Treasury feared a very genuine loss of its real gold reserves.

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Gold Outpaces Euro's Sharp Bounce as US-Russian Saber Rattling "Supports Precious Metals" - Adrian Ash

Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:36:51 GMT

THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD added to its overnight rally early in London on Wednesday, hitting a three-session high above $834 per ounce as the US Dollar slipped on the currency and commodity markets.

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German Data Suggest Euro-zone is Headed For Recession - Victoria Marklew

Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:35:35 GMT

So much for hope that Euro-zone growth will improve in Q3. Data releases from Germany today underline the fact that the ' zone' s powerhouse economy is flirting with a technical recession, and the details of those releases point to negative developments for the Euro-zone as a whole.

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Is Gold About to Decouple From the Euro and Rise With the $? - Julian Phillips

Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:34:23 GMT

Gold has moved with the € and in the opposite direction to the U.S.$ for months now. The main reason is because U.S. Investors have linked the performance of the $ to the € as a true reflection of the $ currency value. Of course this implies that the € is the defining currency against which to measure the performance of the $. But is that even reasonable? We think not.

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China Ponders 370 bln Yuan Stimulus Package - Peter A. Grant

Tue, 26 Aug 2008 22:46:27 GMT

China is considering a 370 bln yuan ($54 bln) post-Olympic stimulus package to keep the economy rolling along. With much of the rest of the world slowing, China is seeking to offset any negative fallout with 220 bln yuan in government spending and 150 bln yuan in tax breaks.

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Gold Dumps Again as London Re-Opens, But "Smart Money" Buying at Strongest Rate Since Aug. '07 - Adrian Ash

Tue, 26 Aug 2008 22:45:35 GMT

WORLD GOLD PRICES sank at the London opening on Tuesday, losing 1.6% inside two hours as the world's No.1 gold-dealing market re-opened after its August Bank Holiday.

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Eagle Rationing: Where there's Smoke, there's Fire - John Lee

Tue, 26 Aug 2008 06:47:37 GMT

The U.S. Mint announced Monday that it would resume taking orders of American Eagle coins on a limited basis after last week's sales suspension. At this very moment in time, orders on gold coins are taking weeks or even months to fill.

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Technically Precious with Merv - Merv Burak

Tue, 26 Aug 2008 06:46:57 GMT

Gold was basically in a bounce mode this past week but unfortunately closed on the down side on Friday. It needs a lot more upside activity or lateral strength building to prove that it is back on a roll.

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Dead Men Walking - John Mauldin

Tue, 26 Aug 2008 06:46:10 GMT

Last Friday's letter was about the fact that it is not just Freddie and Fannie. There are other problems. The Weekend Edition and today's Wall Street Journal are filled with stories about the problems with Freddie and Fannie.

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Freedom is Golden - Ron Paul

Tue, 26 Aug 2008 06:45:11 GMT

As the Olympics wind down, I am amazed at how things change every four years. Many Americans were glued to their televisions to watch the excitement from Beijing, and also heard announcers wax nostalgic with memories of times when the Soviet Union was the USA's biggest competitor for Olympic gold.

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China's Growing Middle Class Equates to Growing Demand for Gold - Peter A. Grant

Mon, 25 Aug 2008 17:12:40 GMT

Today I am writing from the city of Guangzhou, formerly known as Canton, in Guangdong Province. Guangzhou is a major commercial and manufacturing region in South China and is the economic hub of the Pearl River delta.

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Turning Points - Andre Gratian

Mon, 25 Aug 2008 17:11:25 GMT

The Dow Jones Industrials may be deviating from their typical decennial pattern in an election year. Important cycles going into the Fall could be the reason for this, but one also has to consider the possibility that the downward pressure from the 120-yr cycle...

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Where's the Gold? - James West

Mon, 25 Aug 2008 17:10:33 GMT

Last week I read that a fellow named Richard Smith who is a coin dealer in Phoenix, Arizona had upbraided Chris Powell, secretary and treasurer of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, for mis-interpreting the suspension of 1 ounce Gold Eagles sales by the US mint as proof positive that the global inventory of central bank-held gold was probably much less than reported.

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Is The Dow Jones Industrial Average Relevant? - Tim Wood

Sun, 24 Aug 2008 21:22:44 GMT

This past week I was listening to an interview with an analyst who said that she had some 27 years of experience. In this interview she claimed that the Dow Jones Industrial Average was irrelevant.

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It's More Than Freddie and Fannie - John Mauldin

Sun, 24 Aug 2008 21:21:57 GMT

Yet another crisis confronts us, as we will have to deal with the aftermath of a rather large number of bank failures over the next year, which is likely to overwhelm the ability of the FDIC to insure your bank deposits.

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Gold Signals Gone Wild - Chris Vermeulen

Sun, 24 Aug 2008 21:21:07 GMT

Gold Signals seem to be popping up everywhere this week in our collection of gold exchange traded funds . This is a quick gold sector updated on the current price action of some of the best gold exchange traded funds.

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Gold: It's Not Over Yet - David Nichols

Sun, 24 Aug 2008 21:20:29 GMT

In my last article I warned that a breakdown out of a triangle consolidation typically leads to a very swift and scary downside move, and this is just what has happened to gold and silver.

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Investors Chase Phantoms - Peter Schiff

Sun, 24 Aug 2008 21:19:43 GMT

In football, when a running back intends to cut to the left, he often first fakes right. This move is designed to make the defense commit their resources in the wrong direction. It is my experience that markets often follow a similar path.

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Oil Again Leads Gold by the Nose - Rick Ackerman

Fri, 22 Aug 2008 18:51:28 GMT

Once again, crude is leading bullion around by the nose, causing the price of gold to track a presumably doomed energy rally that has been wrongly attributed to "tensions" between the U.S. and Russia.

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Silver Arbitrage - David Morgan

Fri, 22 Aug 2008 18:50:44 GMT

In economics and finance, arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a price differential between two or more markets: striking a combination of matching deals that capitalize upon the imbalance...

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Gold Prices Slip But "Demand Up, Premiums Up" as Gold Coin Shortage Locks Out New Buyers - Adrian Ash

Fri, 22 Aug 2008 18:49:15 GMT

THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD in the international wholesale market slipped below $825 early on Friday in London , but stayed on track for its sharpest one-week gains since 2001 after losing $150 per ounce from the end of July.

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The Real World Order - John Mauldin

Fri, 22 Aug 2008 18:46:52 GMT

"But this time it's different!!!" Any time you hear that from a financial analyst, you should run. Or better still, take the other side of his trade! If you're numerically oriented, you know that patterns tend to revert to the mean.

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A New Qualitative Capitalism - Davide Accomazzo

Fri, 22 Aug 2008 18:45:59 GMT

A few months ago I penned an article titled: The End of Capitalism as We Know it ; as we were witnessing the collapse of many widely held beliefs about our economic system, it seemed appropriate to take a moment and reflect on the underlying dynamics.

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Freddie's Loss is Gold's Gain - John Lee

Fri, 22 Aug 2008 18:45:02 GMT

Sometimes people are so caught up in short-term action that we don't look at the long-term picture.

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Double-Count Accounting Magic - Richard Daughty

Fri, 22 Aug 2008 18:44:17 GMT

The dollar, to my utter astonishment, has been strengthening lately, when it should be collapsing, as befits the currency of the biggest debtor nation in the world that has borrowed so damned much money...

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The Building Storm: Gold, the Dollar and Inflation - Casey Research

Fri, 22 Aug 2008 18:43:15 GMT

One could hardly fail to notice that gold investors have suffered a little more than a "bit of pain" over the past month. More like a good kicking as gold moved down by about 20% from its recent high of $986 on July 15.

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Look for a Continuing Correction in Oil - Henry To

Fri, 22 Aug 2008 18:41:21 GMT

Amateur Hour in the Precious Metals Markets - Richard J. Greene

Fri, 22 Aug 2008 18:39:34 GMT

It's no wonder precious metals investors are unloading despite swearing they would not be fooled into panicking when the financial system began to come apart at the seams.

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Revisiting the M3 Contraction - Mike Shedlock

Fri, 22 Aug 2008 18:38:48 GMT

Many have been writing asking how the chart and commentary in M3 Contraction - The Future Is Now can possibly be correct. Here is the chart and a snip of text once again for convenience. The key sentence below is in RED.

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A Brief History of Warrants - Dudley Baker

Fri, 22 Aug 2008 18:37:13 GMT

Perhaps you have heard about warrants but have not taken the time to fully understand the potential which they can bring to your portfolio.

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Gold and Deflation: A Dissenting Dissection - Bob Landis

Thu, 21 Aug 2008 23:10:10 GMT

By happy coincidence, two articles on a subject near and dear to our heart recently appeared within a day of each other. The first was Steve Saville's Gold and Deflation (April 19, 2005).

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Gold Turns "Surely Bullish" on Russian Stand Off, Strong Demand & Weak Central-Bank Sales - Adrian Ash

Thu, 21 Aug 2008 17:40:58 GMT

THE SPOT PRICE of gold bullion rose sharply in Asia and London on Thursday, touching a one-week high of $830 per ounce to recover one third of this month's near-20% drop.

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History repeats itself over and over - Peter A. Grant

Thu, 21 Aug 2008 17:40:23 GMT

Gold is showing some upside follow-through in the wake of the move back above $800 earlier in the week. Renewed weakness in the dollar, firmer oil prices and heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia are all helping to underpin the yellow metal.

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Gold Investments Market Update - Geopolitical Risk Rising Sharply - Goldinvestment.org

Thu, 21 Aug 2008 17:39:36 GMT

Gold finished trading in New York yesterday at $810.30, down 50 cents and silver was down 10 cents to $13.03. Gold and silver then rallied in Asian trading and early European trading. Gold is trading at $821.30/821.70 per ounce (1045 GMT).

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Collateral Damage in the War of the 'Flations - Adrian Ash

Thu, 21 Aug 2008 17:37:35 GMT

WHICH WAY now for financial assets? Given what pumped them up, starting in late 2002, you're better off asking which way for money itself.

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Volatility and the 6-year Cycle - Clif Droke

Thu, 21 Aug 2008 17:36:35 GMT

Volatility tends to run very high during years in which the Kress 6-year cycle is bottoming. Volatility has indeed been a major factor this year and it has been years since we've seen it as high this year.

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The Secret to Retirement Planning - Doug Wakefield

Thu, 21 Aug 2008 17:35:46 GMT

"When it comes to planning for the future, most people think of retirement. Retirement planning is important because it allows you to do the things that you were unable to do while working...

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What Would You Have Done if You Had KNOWN This on May 23rd.? - Marty Chenard

Thu, 21 Aug 2008 17:34:32 GMT

There are two things all investors must do in order to understand the market and be proficient at technical analysis. What are the two things?

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Is the "Commodity Super Cycle" Dead or Alive? - Gary Dorsch

Thu, 21 Aug 2008 00:56:44 GMT

"Those who had been riding the upward wave decide now is the time to get out. Those who thought the rally would last forever, find their illusion destroyed abruptly, and they, also, respond to the newly revealed reality, by selling or trying to sell.

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The Goldsmiths--Part III - R.D. Bradshaw

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 21:26:31 GMT

Being extremely naïve and ignorant about how the modern goldsmiths work and control nations and money, this writer has suffered greatly at their hands over the years, as has been true with others.

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Gold Touches 4-Session High as Credit & Monetary Stimulus Hits UK, US and China - Adrian Ash

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 21:24:36 GMT

SPOT GOLD PRICES recovered one-half of an early 1.5% dip in London on Wednesday, trading $5 below Asia's four-session high of $818 per ounce as crude oil rose together with US stock futures.

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Getting a Grip on China - Peter A. Grant

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 21:23:01 GMT

The last time I was in China, in 2006, the economy was positively booming in the run up to the Olympics. There was a sense of prosperity and potential that was palpable. However, one never can quite get a grasp on this country.

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Are Commodities Oversold? - Frank Holmes

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 21:19:44 GMT

Faced with slowing global growth, macro investors began dumping commodities and commodity-related stocks, with small- and mid-cap stocks hurt the most. This commodities sell-off, which began in July and has continued into August

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Is Your Portfolio Properly Positioned for the Next Move Higher In Gold and Silver? - Peter Spina

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 21:17:59 GMT

The crumbling state of the financial sector comes as little surprise to many readers. The rate at which the process is unfolding is causing high levels of anxiety among those who respect the gravity of the situation but confusion within the gold and silver investment community.

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Commodities: Is the Decennial Pattern Still in Effect? - Kurt Kasun

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 21:15:12 GMT

In early April I wrote a commentary titled " Commodity Boom? You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet! " in which I hypothesized that commodities would maintain investment leadership through the end of the decade and the rally would end in spectacular fashion in early 2010.

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Agri-Food Thoughts - Ned W. Schmidt

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 21:11:26 GMT

Ever since paper oil prices broke, journalists around the world have been brutally attacking keyboards in a rush to declare the end to investing in commodities.

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M3 Contraction - The Future Is Now - Mike Shedlock

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 21:05:22 GMT

The US money supply has experienced the sharpest contraction in modern history, heightening the risk of a Wall Street crunch and a severe economic slowdown in coming months.

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Heightened Risk in the Global Marketplace - David Cai

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 04:06:19 GMT

Earlier this month, the Russian stock exchange index plummeted with the news that Putin has elected an ex-KGB officer with no prior mining experience as CEO for the Russian nickel mining giant Norilsk (it has since continued to slide).

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"I'm from the Government and I'm Here to Help." - Fitzroy McLean

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 04:05:24 GMT

World markets have been watching with bated breath lately as the dynamic duo of Paulson-Bernanke has mounted the Hill (or has been mounted, as it were), on several occasions recently, soothing the markets, politicians, and public with calming words about liquidity, regulation,...

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The Goldsmiths--Part II - R.D. Bradshaw

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 04:02:44 GMT

Perhaps the most important goldsmith of all time was Mayer Amschel Bauer-Elhanan of Frankfort , Germany in the mid 18 th century. As had been true for ages with his relatives and associates, Mayer decided to change his name to one which would be more useful in deceiving and cheating the local people of Germany .

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China's Inflation Highlights Potential for Gold - Peter A. Grant

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 04:01:55 GMT

Despite the global economic slowdown and the threat of a global recession, China is all hustle and bustle. The shops are busy as the rapidly growing middle class spends the wealth generated by three decades of robust and sustained economic growth.

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Market behaviour does not indicate a gold top - Peter J. Cooper

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 04:01:02 GMT

When did a bull market last end with commentators correctly calling the top? It just does not happen that way. The top comes when the last bear has thrown in the towel and is silent, having been proven wrong for too long.

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Gold and the Money Supply - Steve Saville

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 04:00:24 GMT

Paul van Eeden calculates a "Theoretical Gold Price" based on the difference between US$ inflation and gold inflation (the difference between the rate of growth in US dollar supply and the rate of growth in gold supply).

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The Ex Ante Factor: Often Early, Never Wrong? - Vince Foster

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 03:59:41 GMT

As we approach the Labor Day recess and finish off the summer to get ready for the end of year trading pattern the market is leaving us in a very familiar spot.

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The Elusive Bottom - John Mauldin

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 03:55:02 GMT

In this weekend's Thoughts from the Frontlines, I quoted from part of a very thoughtful, right-on-target analysis by David A. Rosenberg entitled "The Elusive Bottom."

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Gold: Cheap as Chips...? - Adrian Ash

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 03:54:10 GMT

THE SHARP DROP in world gold prices starting in late July knocked the cost of physical metal more than 20% off its record top of mid-March at last week's low point.

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How Foreign Policy Affects Gas Prices - Ron Paul

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 03:53:23 GMT

We've heard how the value of the dollar affects gas prices - and indeed the price of everything. I was pleased that my request for a hearing on such was granted by the Financial Services...

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The US Economy: All the Little Things that go to Make a Recession - Gerard Jackson

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 03:52:42 GMT

Since 9/11 the US money supply has rocketed by about 70 per cent*. (The Clinton presidency was just as bad). The problem is one of bad economics, not bad investment decisions, wild speculation, the housing boom, the falling dollar, the current account deficit, the domestic deficit, etc. T

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Gold's Correcting, Not Collapsing - Roy Martens

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 03:51:26 GMT

The sky certainly appears to be falling for most commodities investors. We are experiencing a very fierce fall and a growing number of investors are simply throwing in the towel.

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DZZ Gold ETN - How to Short Gold by Going Long - Chris Vermeulen

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 03:50:17 GMT

DZZ Double Gold ETN is a relatively new way to take advantage of gold price action. This gold fund provides double the movement that the GLD ETF or the price of gold does, providing bigger opportunities in the gold sector.

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The Goldsmiths--Part I - R.D. Bradshaw

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:58:36 GMT

In March 2008, gold hit a high of around $1030 per ounce. By mid-August, it had collapsed to $772. Similar falls happened to most of the commodities and foreign currencies. Wheat went from a high of $13-15 to $7-8 per bushel; Silver, soybeans and corn all crashed as well.

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Gold Hits "Supply Squeeze" in Europe and US - Adrian Ash

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:57:43 GMT

"Precious metals sentiment is still bearish as the US Dollar continues to strengthen against the Euro, albeit in a volatile manner," said Walter de Wet in today's market note from Standard Bank.

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The Dollar Has Been Allowed To Appreciate - Chris Ciovacco

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:56:50 GMT

Mohamed El-Erian is the former highly successful manager of the Harvard endowment and current head of PIMCO.

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How Low Will Gold Go? - Alex Wallenwein

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:55:57 GMT

Gold doesn't go anywhere. What "goes" up or down are the dollar figures we have all been trained to attach to it - but we all know, for a fact, how illusory those are.

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Precious Points: Bye-bye Bull? - Joe Nicholson

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:51:40 GMT

"The face of the coin has been debased as fast as its value. First the faces of gods were on the coins. Then the faces of kings. Then of presidents.

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Whatever Happened to Decoupling? - John Mauldin

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:50:35 GMT

The old mantra was that if the United States sneezed, the rest of the world would catch a cold, as the US was seen as the main driver of world growth. That was then. Economists and analysts began to argue that China and the developing markets were starting to provide a consumer base for the world.

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How the Smart Money Lost $1 Trillion, So Far - Gary North

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:48:36 GMT

When the best and the brightest investors in the world lose $500 billion in one year in one market segment - mortgages - this raises a question: What can the rest of us do to keep from losing our shirts?

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The Silver "Reverse" Bubble of 2008 - Paul Mladjenovic

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:47:43 GMT

As an investor, speculator and researcher in the silver market for over 5 years, I have to say that I am (temporarily) stunned at the extraordinary recent events in the silver market this summer. It is an incredible contrast...

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The Impact of Negative Real Interest Rates - Rich Toscano and John Simon

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:43:00 GMT

Back in March, we pointed out some important similarities between the current financial environment and that of the 1970s .

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Epic Gold-Stock Buying Op - Adam Hamilton

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:37:46 GMT

The precious-metals stocks did not take kindly to gold's steep selloff this week. On Monday the flagship HUI gold-stock index plunged 6.0% at the climax of what can only be described as a crash.

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The Strong Dollar Illusion - Peter Schiff

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:36:48 GMT

Economists who now see American troubles spreading around the world are predicting that foreign central banks will ignore the gathering inflation threat and follow the Fed down the rate cutting path. Similarly, they argue that since the downturn began here...

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Gold Slumps to Nine-Month Low as "Shaky" Speculators Bale Out - Adrian Ash

Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:24:35 GMT

THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD sank yet again at the London opening on Friday, falling 2.6% to touch a nine-month low as US crude oil prices dropped 1.3% to trade below $114 per barrel.

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Will U.S. Fall Kill Global Economy? - Rick Ackerman

Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:21:49 GMT

Would a severe recession in the U.S. sink the global economy? As recently as five years ago, the answer probably would have been yes. But trade between foreign nations has been expanding so rapidly in recent years that a knockout punch, particularly to the robust Asian economies, seems unlikely.

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Hold on to gold for systemic protection - Peter J. Cooper

Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:21:02 GMT

Massive currency intervention ahead of the US presidential election explains the dollar rally that has depressed precious metal prices over the past two weeks.

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Silver Gets Spiked! - David Morgan

Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:18:27 GMT

An article I wrote was featured in Futures magazine's May 2008 edition and was titled "Metals Fever." I had completed that article and upon review, the editor asked if I would give some comments on trading.

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The Dollar: Short-Term Rebalancing Of Expectations, Long Term Risk - MERK

Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:15:08 GMT

Recent price action in the foreign exchange market in our estimation is a function of a short-term rebalancing in expectations of global growth and demand for commodities.

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Gold and the Out of Whack Economy - Richard Daughty

Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:14:09 GMT

I am always looking for some extra money with which to buy gold, and if I am ever successful without actually getting a job, I intend to buy some right away, as Bob Moriarty has taken a look at the XAU gold equities index compared to gold, and finds that a recent ratio of 0.182 means that today "is the most negative ratio of gold shares to gold in the last five years.

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2008 US Election and Quadrupling The Inflation Tax - Daniel R. Amerman

Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:12:12 GMT

US presidential candidate Barack Obama has proposed increasing the capital gains tax from 15% to 25%. Unfortunately, the biggest component of investment taxes during inflationary times is not taxation of economic income, but taxation of the government's destruction of the value of its own currency.

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Global Goldilocks? - Kurt Kasun

Thu, 14 Aug 2008 16:16:53 GMT

The new narrative forming among the Goldilocks crowd is that US economic supremacy reigns once again, as manifest in a reawakened "King Dollar". The US dollar will continue to strengthen, commodity prices will plummet, and the stock market can only rally from here since all of the bad news has already been discounted.

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British Gold Sovereigns - The Preserve of Collectors, Savers and Smart Investors - Mark O'Byrne

Thu, 14 Aug 2008 16:16:03 GMT

Gold bullion remains an essential diversification and essential financial insurance to have in all properly diversified portfolios. Besides the ever more important factors of inflation hedging and financial insurance, gold is likely to continue to outperform other asset classes and to provide significant returns to gold buyers.

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Retire Social Security: Social Security Is Morally Bankrupt - Alex Epstein

Thu, 14 Aug 2008 16:06:11 GMT

August 14 marks Social Security's 73rd birthday--placing it eight years past standard retirement age. But, despite the program's $10-trillion-plus dollar shortfall, no politician dares to suggest that this disastrous program be phased out and retired;

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The Big "What If?" - Bill Bonner

Thu, 14 Aug 2008 16:01:59 GMT

Yesterday, we posed a 'what if?' It was not a prediction; just an exploration: what if the world economy goes into a long, slow, soft Japan-like slump?

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Gold Adds to Its Bounce as Europe Flirts with Recession, Gold Mining Supplies Fall Despite Record Investment Demand - Adrian Ash

Thu, 14 Aug 2008 15:55:38 GMT

THE SPOT PRICE OF PHYSICAL GOLD added to Wednesday's sharp bounce early in Asia and London Thursday morning, nearing the Wall Street open almost 4.4% above the week's low at $836 per ounce.

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Set To Soar Or Swoon? - John Browne

Wed, 13 Aug 2008 18:04:14 GMT

Despite a series of worrying news items last week, U.S. stock markets managed to deliver strong gains. Time and again, U.S. investors seem to turn lemons into lemonade by assuming each bad data point is an indication that the bottom is in.

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The Case For and Against the Dollar - MERK

Wed, 13 Aug 2008 18:03:10 GMT

We have been cautioning for some time that volatility in the currency markets may increase further, even from the elevated levels of the past year. Nonetheless, violent market action is nerve rattling, even to seasoned investors.

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The U.S. Dollar on Roman Steroids - Richard Daughty

Wed, 13 Aug 2008 18:00:33 GMT

Inflation seems to be raging, to one degree or another, all over the world now, and in Europe as a whole it rose to 4.1%, which is (as I hear) the most inflation in 16 years. Curiously, the inflation rate in consumer prices in Germany, which is Europe's largest economy, is still "only" 3.4%.

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A Value Investor Looks At China - John Mauldin

Wed, 13 Aug 2008 17:54:33 GMT

China is all the rage for the next few weeks as the Olympics are going on. Many are calling this China's time to showcase itself to the world. I have a lot of friends and analysts who are big China bulls, believing that the next few years will see continued high growth in China, although less than the above 10% of the past few years.

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So Much For The Power of The Fed - Michael Panzner

Wed, 13 Aug 2008 17:53:01 GMT

Share prices have come alive in recent weeks, aided by a number of ostensibly positive developments.

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Gold Thoughts - Ned W. Schmidt

Wed, 13 Aug 2008 17:51:47 GMT

In most recent Trading Thoughts we reported that the largest purchases of U.S. government debt by foreign official institutions had occurred in the prior week. Initially, reason for those purchases was a mystery.

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Pay Attention to Important Market Divergences ... - Marty Chenard

Wed, 13 Aug 2008 17:50:31 GMT

Market divergences tell a story of something, or some investor segment acting contrary to the market's movements. Currently ... the DJI, NASDAQ, S&P, and the Russell are showing an up trending condition. But, what if Institutions were selling while you were buying ... how would you feel then?

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The Consumer Driven Commodity Bull Market - Emanuel Balarie

Wed, 13 Aug 2008 17:44:11 GMT

It is important to note that there are two components to the Chinese commodity demand. The first component is the demand for commodities as a result of industrialization and foreign investments. The second component is a result of consumer demand. Read "China, Jim Rogers, and Commodities"

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London Gold Market Report - Adrian Ash

Wed, 13 Aug 2008 17:42:26 GMT

SPOT GOLD PRICES gave back all of a 1.5% rally late-morning in London on Wednesday, dropping below $815 per ounce in thin but frantic trade as the US Dollar continued to rally against pretty much everything.

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Gold's Stampede Into Bogus Paper - Rick Ackerman

Tue, 12 Aug 2008 18:20:35 GMT

Global markets continued to punish gold yesterday for the speculative excesses of crude oil, a mere commodity. With the dollar robustly on the rise in recent weeks, spurred in part by the prospect of a plunging energy-trade deficit, it's easy to understand why investors would treat the dollar as money and gold as a commodity.

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Banks Stocks vs Gold Stocks - Peter Forth

Tue, 12 Aug 2008 18:19:42 GMT

The economy is in trouble. Scandals and bailouts of major institutions occur on a nearly daily basis. It is the day of the Goldbug, or is it?

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Are PM Stocks A Screaming Buy Yet? - Ruben T. Varela

Tue, 12 Aug 2008 18:17:57 GMT

The $GOLD:$XAU Ratio chart below measures the value of precious metal [PM] mining stocks relative to the value of Gold. $XAU is a widely followed PM index comprised of 10 PM stocks.

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Back to the Start - Ted Butler

Tue, 12 Aug 2008 18:15:13 GMT

The recent price smash in silver, as well as a whole host of commodities, has created questions in every investor's mind as to what happens next.

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Some Signs that Gold Is Trying to Bottom - Michael Swanson

Tue, 12 Aug 2008 18:14:14 GMT

After falling 40 dollars Monday morning and dragging the HUI down 20 points there are some short-term technical signs that gold may be near a bottom of some sorts.

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Australia Reserve Bank "Shocked" by the Severity of the Slowdown - Mike Shedlock

Tue, 12 Aug 2008 18:11:10 GMT

Australia's Reserve Bank has expressed deep concern about Australia's economic outlook, presenting forecasts that suggest it might have lifted interest rates too high.

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Precious Metals Stocks Major Buy Alert... - Clive Maund

Tue, 12 Aug 2008 18:08:50 GMT

If you take a stroll around the financial district of any big city such as London, New York or Tokyo, you will walk past countless well dressed and groomed men, in smart suits and ties with tidily coiffured hair and neatly clipped nails...

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The US$ and the Gold Sector - Steve Saville

Tue, 12 Aug 2008 18:07:10 GMT

Up until the past week or so there has been almost incessant talk in the press and many newsletters about the weak US dollar, but the US currency hasn't been universally weak since last November.

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How Much Will Government Bailouts Actually Cost the American Taxpayer? - Richard Benson

Tue, 12 Aug 2008 17:58:38 GMT

Over the last eight years, we have watched in horror as a two-term Republican Administration furthered programs that have effectively thrown lit sticks of dynamite into our American factories.

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What's in a Bill Name? - Ron Paul

Tue, 12 Aug 2008 17:56:39 GMT

Recently Congress passed the American Housing Rescue and Foreclosure Prevention Act., also known as the Housing Bill. Its passage was lauded by many who are legitimately concerned about foreclosures and the housing market in our country's economy.

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Gold, Silver and Oil Market Updates - Clive Maund

Tue, 12 Aug 2008 05:54:14 GMT

A week of dramatic developments ended with the dollar surging to 6-month highs and silver crashing an important support level and plunging. Gold, however, did not break below its important $850 support level, although as we shall see this certainly does not mean it won't soon.

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Bear Comparison: Today's Junior Resource Sector vs 2001's Nasdaq - John Lee

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 23:04:52 GMT

In October 2002, few stock traders doubted that technology was creating value and changing the face of the Earth. Even so, the Nasdaq was priced at 1/4 of the value of its March 2000 peak amid the rubble of the tech crash.

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Turning Points - Andre Gratian

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 17:24:00 GMT

Long-term trend - The Dow Jones Industrials may be deviating from their typical decennial pattern in an election year. Important cycles going into the Fall could be the reason for this, but one also has to consider the possibility that the downward pressure from the 120-yr cycle...

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Who is Really Printing Money? - Boris Sobolev

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 17:16:33 GMT

A popular mantra among many gold bugs is: " the Fed is printing money. " Any actions by the Fed to support liquidity in the markets are touted as "money creation" and consequently "monetary inflation" which causes gold appreciation. If gold does not rise, they proclaim that there is "manipulation" and "conspiracy".

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Timing Model Update - Bill Rempel

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 17:09:47 GMT

Timing attempts to provide market equivalent returns over the long term, with a substantial reduction in variability of returns. The two components of the Timing program are EZ+Macro and Fear/Greed.

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Parabolic Moves, Bubbles and the End Result - Tim Wood

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 16:52:37 GMT

In the chart below I have included a weekly chart of the Nasdaq 100. Beginning at the 4-year cycle low that occurred in October 1998, we can see that price rose sharply in February 1999. In fact, in that 4-month period this index moved from a low of 1,063.74 up to 2,150.83. This was a 102% advance in only 4 months.

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A New Asset Class, Part Two - John Mauldin

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 16:51:43 GMT

Last week's letter was the first part of a speech I have been giving on what I think will be the rise of a new asset class. This week will be the second and final part. Let me set up this section with a few paragraphs from last week's letter and then a quick summary.

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Equities Soar, Oil Slides - Mike Paulenoff

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 16:50:59 GMT

Equities are on a roll. Looking at the Nasdaq through the daily chart of the Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (QQQQ), we see that the Q's closed at 47.31, just above the declining 200 DMA at 47.25. This is a very positive sign that today's upmove SHOULD continue towards my next optimal target zone of 48.20/50.

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With Growth Slackening, Czech Central Bank Eases - Victoria Marklew

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 16:50:03 GMT

As anticipated (see Daily Global Commentary, July 30: " Surging Central European Currencies: Running Out of Steam? "), the Czech central bank switched to easing mode yesterday, lowering its key repo rate by 25bps to 3.50% ...

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Burst Bubble: Energy or Speculator? - Doug Noland

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 16:49:22 GMT

For the week, the Dow jumped 3.6% (down 11.5% y-t-d) and the S&P500 gained 2.9% (down 11.7%). The Transports surged 5.4%, increasing 2008 gains to 14.1%. The Morgan Stanley Cyclicals rose 4.0% (down 11.1%). The Morgan Stanley Consumer index jumped 4.4% (down 5.2%), and the Utilities added 1.2% (down 12.3%).

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How to Calculate Your Own Gold Price Projection - Casey Research

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 16:47:58 GMT

It's true for almost any commodity: there are a lot of influences pushing on the price, and it's hard to untangle them all. But gold is exceptional. A single factor dominates the market price - and you can measure it.

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Gold Bull Seasonals Issue 3 - Adam Hamilton

Fri, 08 Aug 2008 17:45:01 GMT

It's been a tough few weeks for gold investors. In mid-July this Ancient Metal of Kings closed near $976, within spitting distance of its all-time nominal high of $1005 achieved in mid-March 2008. But since then it has sold off relentlessly, down 10.4% ($101) at worst. Several days of this ugly span were marred by sharp selloffs too, including this past Tuesday's 2.2% plunge on the Fed's machinations.

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Small Cap Stocks

Fri, 08 Aug 2008 17:16:43 GMT

This week I spent most of my time in Vancouver, British Columbia, because I was invited to be on Business News Network ("BNN") television, doing the Small Caps segment. Later in the week I did a presentation for subscribers with the Coffin brothers and Lawrence Roulston at the Metropolitan Hotel. Gibson Marketing hosted this event.

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What Is Money? - James Turk

Fri, 08 Aug 2008 16:59:41 GMT

So far we've tossed around terms like "money" and "currency" with some abandon. If this left you a little unclear about their exact meaning, not to worry, you're in good company; the world's business and political leaders appear to be just as confused.

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Corrective Low: What to Look For - Troy Schwensen

Fri, 08 Aug 2008 16:50:25 GMT

The sharp fall in the gold price in recent weeks approaches what I believe to be the final corrective low in this consolidation pattern before the next surge higher. If we look back over the last 8 years, we can see the gold price has traded in fairly predictable sideways patterns (Waves 2 and 4) as it consolidates after significant waves higher (Waves 1,3 and 5).

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Premature Celebration: The Market and the Fed - Joseph Brusuelas

Fri, 08 Aug 2008 16:41:14 GMT

The enthusiastic response of the market to the moderation in the price of imported oil and the Fed monetary statement is a bit overdone. It is based on the hope that inflation will moderate rather than a hard-nosed look at the pricing environment.

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Fractional-Reserve Banking at its Finest - Richard Daughty

Fri, 08 Aug 2008 14:36:48 GMT

"TFC is what gets created with the literal push of a button at the Fed, and then deposited into the banks (or into the Fed itself!) and then turned into actual money when someone borrows this just-created-out-of-thin-air credit..."

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Business Cycle Primer: A Primer - Bob Hoye

Fri, 08 Aug 2008 14:34:59 GMT

Typically at a peak, the cycle for share certificates leads the business cycle by some 8 to 12 months. In so many words, the stock market turns down while the economy continues up.

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Geopolitical risk premium built into oil prices? - John Mauldin

Fri, 08 Aug 2008 14:34:13 GMT

Kudos to my friend George Friedman and his crew at Stratfor. If you didn't see the article in this week's Barron's about Stratfor's analysis of the geopolitical risk premium built into oil prices, you missed a really good piece of work. You've probably heard Napoleon's quote that "Amateurs discuss strategy, and professionals discuss logistics."

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Gold ETF - The Gold ETF Experience - Chris Vermeulen

Thu, 07 Aug 2008 18:06:29 GMT

As I mentioned before, the past 5 months have been very frustrating for most traders as we are stuck in this sideways price action. I also noted that August to December is generally the stronger months for gold.

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Making Better Investment Decisions with the Help of Empirical Research (Part II) - Tom Madell

Thu, 07 Aug 2008 18:05:13 GMT

In my continuing research on fund investing, I have assembled large amounts of data on mutual fund performance. This data has proven useful in yielding insights on questions of crucial importance regarding how investors might more successfully manage a portfolio of fund investments.

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Gold & Silver - the August lows are upon us! - Peter Degraaf

Thu, 07 Aug 2008 17:09:29 GMT

Upon analyzing over 30 years of data involving the gold price, we conclude that the seasonal lows usually occur in March and June. Quite often however, after the June low a secondary low is experienced in August.

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Path to the Printing Press - Jim Willie

Thu, 07 Aug 2008 16:57:52 GMT

The path to the printing press is a long one. It is used at first to spread credit indiscriminantly in sustaining commerce and funding financial systems. For the United States, that means horribly inefficient usage of credit in commerce, where 5 units of credit produce one unit of business activity.

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Responding to Bear Market Conditions - David Shvartsman

Thu, 07 Aug 2008 05:49:29 GMT

We talked about the continuing global bear market in equities on Monday, but there was an important corollary to this discussion that was not addressed (we will address it here now). The question is this: how do you, as a trader or investor, respond to bear market conditions?

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German Manufacturing Orders Take A Hit From Weak Euro-zone Demand - Victoria Marklew

Thu, 07 Aug 2008 05:48:39 GMT

Midst a steady drumbeat of weak-to-negative economic news out of the Euro-zone in the past few days, there was one report today that gives particular cause for concern - German manufacturing orders.

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New Buzzword for Commodities - "Demand Destruction" - Gary Dorsch

Thu, 07 Aug 2008 05:47:53 GMT

Jesse Livermore, the world's greatest trader used to say, "Remember, the market is designed to fool most of the people most of the time. Sometimes, the market will go contrary to what speculators have predicted. At these times, speculators must abandon their predictions and follow the action of the market. Never argue with the tape.

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The Fed's Next Move is Down - John Browne

Thu, 07 Aug 2008 05:46:55 GMT

Yesterday, the Fed surprised no one and left its key rates unchanged and gave no indication that the committee was preparing to raise or lower rates anytime in the foreseeable future. As always, the market reactions were much more interesting and unpredictable. In this case, bond markets barely changed, the U.S. stock market jumped, and Euro futures strengthened slightly against the U.S. dollar.

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Is this a bottom for the U.S. Dollar? - David Cai

Wed, 06 Aug 2008 21:32:36 GMT

Is the recent upward movement in the dollar a signal that it has bottomed out, and will now move back to a higher level? Or is it just a bull trap for those who are long the dollar?

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Elliott Wave Gold Update Issue 21 - Alf Field

Wed, 06 Aug 2008 17:19:10 GMT

Clearly the gold price has not moved into the strong upsurge expected for Large Wave III, as postulated in Update 20. The decline that started at a London PM fix of $986.0 on 15 July 2008 has already reached $882.0 (5 Aug 2008), a decline of $104.0 or 10.5%.

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Will Fed Stimulation End the Credit Contraction? - Bob Hoye

Wed, 06 Aug 2008 17:11:35 GMT

- The late bubble has been the greatest on record and is the accumulated consequence of 95 years of Fed stimulation.

- Every experiment in currency depreciation ends with great market and political volatility.

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Credit Card Loans About to Dry Up - Rick Ackerman

Wed, 06 Aug 2008 17:10:42 GMT

If credit is so tight for commercial borrowers, why are so many households still deluged with mail from banks offering credit-card money at 3.99%? The answer came to light yesterday in news suggesting that the source of such loans is about to dry up. Banks have typically raised cash for revolving charge loans by issuing bonds that as recently as March topped $10 billion per month.

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Gold Firms Post-Fed - Peter A. Grant

Wed, 06 Aug 2008 16:48:30 GMT

Gold has firmed in the wake of Tuesday's Fed decision to hold steady on interest rates. An uptick in oil prices, along with a slightly easier dollar are helping to support the yellow metal.

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The Looming Federal Default: Sooner or Later? - Gary North

Wed, 06 Aug 2008 16:29:57 GMT

When interviewed, they say they think the systems are going to go bust, but they do not change their behavior and save more. They save less. Today, household saving as a percentage of household discretionary income is negative. Americans are borrowing to maintain their lifestyles.

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Platinum's Warning for Gold - David Nichols

Wed, 06 Aug 2008 05:39:02 GMT

Gold is coming up on its moment-of-truth -- and a potentially great spot to re-enter long positions, as we recently took profits up at $966.

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Agri-Food Thoughts - Ned W. Schmidt

Wed, 06 Aug 2008 05:38:11 GMT

With paper oil prices breaking, nonsense spewing forth from business media and strategists has expanded. Commodity prices have broken, many claim. Yes folks, those billion plus consumers in China stopped eating food the day paper oil prices peaked. We would not be surprised if they do keep eating. Slowdown in China?

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Nowhere to Hide from Inflation - Richard Daughty

Wed, 06 Aug 2008 05:37:16 GMT

It is inflation that makes me crazy until I am crying like a baby in fear and locking myself in the closet under the stairs where I whimper piteously. Through the door I can hear my wife and kids saying, "Come out! It's not so bad! It's worse in China!"

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What's Happening Now? A Stock Market Liquidity Squeeze - Marty Chenard

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 19:44:27 GMT

Today's charts show the inflows and outflows of liquidity into the stock market. When inflows are trending up and positive (in expansion), the competition for stocks becomes high and prices are bid up causing an upside rally.

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The collapse of consumer spending - Martin Hutchinson

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 16:30:26 GMT

The Gross Domestic Product and employment figures released Thursday and Friday appeared at first sight to show a US economy that had returned to a measure of stability. However when examined more closely they painted a much darker picture, of an economy in which a sharp decline in retail spending is likely to cause substantial overall economic contraction over the next several quarters.

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Whitney: Credit crunch far from over - Meredith Whitney

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 16:01:24 GMT

The credit crisis is far from over, star analyst Meredith Whitney tells Fortune magazine in its upcoming issue.

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Gaming a Gold Stock Bottom - Michael Swanson

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 15:59:08 GMT

Last Wednesday morning I wrote an article titled "Gold Stocks are Near a Key Bottom." When I put the article together I was looking for a bottom in gold stocks to put my own money to use in. Except for a small position, I have been out of them for awhile now and have been looking for a bottom in July/August to mark an end of their summer long consolidation phase.

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Gold and Silver: Safe-havens in Troubled Times? - Julian D. W. Phillips

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 15:57:29 GMT

Each day we hear another piece of bad news on the banking front. It was called the sub-prime crisis, then it was the credit crunch; what we have in reality is a full blown banking crisis .

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Oil's Fall, Election Will Buoy Stocks - Rick Ackerman

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 05:47:18 GMT

With recession coming on full-bore, bank failures starting to snowball, and no end in sight for falling home prices, why is it that we expect the Dow Industrials to be trading somewhat higher come November? For starters, you have to realize that Wall Street and the stock market exist in a warp totally apart from perceived reality.

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Will Consumer Spending Drive the US Economy into Recession? - Gerard Jackson

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 00:07:54 GMT

Unlike old soldiers economic fallacies refuse to fade away. Nouriel Roubini, former Clinton White House economist and now a professor of economics, has been busy telling the Bloomberg business news service that the economy is heading for a severe downturn that will be worse than the 2001 recession.

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Washington's Intervention Addiction - Ron Paul

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 00:07:11 GMT

One problem with politicians is that when problems they create come to a head, they typically feel this irresistible urge to DO something, rather than to UN-do something, or to simply back off to avoid exacerbating the situation.

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Gold Investment Fundamentals and the Transfer of Capital - Chris Vermeulen

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 00:06:14 GMT

The Secular Bull Market in Gold Investments corresponds directly to the Secular Bear Market in Financials. We explain why this trend will continue and why a short-term buying opportunity in Gold presents itself.

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Well Planned Portfolio Configurations Critical At This Point - Captain Hook

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 00:03:10 GMT

Just a few quick words this morning accompanied by a smattering of charts to keep you updated at where we are with the present correction in precious metals. In a nutshell, any further weakness in precious metals shares will increase the likelihood of one more Minor Degree wave lower being necessary before the larger correction is compete.

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Fisher's Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions and a Possible Revision - London Banker

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 00:02:07 GMT

I have been both a central banker and a market regulator. I now find myself questioning whether my early career, largely devoted to liberalising and deregulating banking and financial markets, was misguided.

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The Credit Market is Milked Dry - William H. Gross PIMCO

Fri, 01 Aug 2008 22:01:45 GMT

The deflating U.S./global asset markets are much like Churchill's Russia: a riddle wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. "Who is driving delevering?" asks the Financial Times , and the answer comes back, "all of us;" yet it is hard to see it except in the headlines or to fix it, given a lineup of 6.8 billion suspects.

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The War for Oil - Casey Research

Fri, 01 Aug 2008 20:52:22 GMT

In the blustery winter of 1950, U.S. Major General Oliver Smith and his elite 1st Marine Division were surprise attacked by some 3000 Chinese troops as the Americans attempted to take control of the mountainous eastern coast of North Korea. Suffering 1,500 casualties and over 4,000 wounded, Smith withdrew his force and delivered his now-famous quote: "Gentlemen, we are not retreating.

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Base Metals Stockpiles & Prices 4 - Scott Wright

Fri, 01 Aug 2008 20:50:56 GMT

When the base metals bulls began in 2003, few could fathom the wild ride ahead. Fundamentals indeed supported steadily rising prices, but the massive parabolas that unfolded between 2005 and 2007 were amazing to behold. From trough to peak copper, zinc, nickel, lead, and aluminum skyrocketed 475%, 523%, 650%, 829%, and 137% respectively.

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Gold, Crude Decoupling? - Rick Ackerman

Fri, 01 Aug 2008 16:30:39 GMT

Wednesday's punitive lows, hinting that the so-far 10% correction from mid-July's $1,000 top may be as bad as it gets. We'd been expecting the weakness to continue for at least a little longer, with precious metal prices getting dragged down for another day or two by sagging speculative demand for crude.

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A Legacy of Inflation - Michael Pento

Fri, 01 Aug 2008 16:16:16 GMT

It amazes me how many investors are now concerned about a deflationary spiral occurring in commodity prices. They site oil prices that are slightly off all time highs or a falling CRB index as their examples. While it is true many commodities are off historic highs, it is hardly reasonable to project a continuation of falling asset prices given the state of the banking sector and the consumer.

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The Reflation and Releveraging of Japan - Henry To

Fri, 01 Aug 2008 16:15:20 GMT

Let us begin our commentary by reviewing our 7 most recent signals in our DJIA Timing System :

1st signal entered: 50% short position on October 4, 2007 at 13,956;

2nd signal entered: 50% short position COVERED on January 9, 2008 at 12,630, giving us a gain of 1,326 points.

3rd signal entered: 50% long position on January 9, 2008 at 12,630;

4th signal entered: Additional 50% long position on January 22, 2008 at 11,715;

5th signal entered: 100% long position SOLD on May 22, 2008 at 12,640, giving us gains of 925 and 10 points, respectively;

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The Con In Central Bankers' Confidence - Darryl Robert Schoon

Fri, 01 Aug 2008 16:12:43 GMT

Central bankers are the keepers of the keys to the kingdom. The kingdom, however, is on the edge of bankruptcy and in danger as never before. Comparisons are now being made to the Great Depression of the 1930s. The comparisons, however, are just that.

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Bring out your models - Economist

Fri, 01 Aug 2008 16:11:41 GMT

DURING the plague of 1665, Londoners sought to avoid infection by sniffing flowers and herbs, clearing deadly "miasmas" with smoke, killing cats and praying for neighbours whose sins were thought to have brought divine wrath. Only later did the horrid understanding dawn that nobody was immune.

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A Devil's Dictionary of Finance - Nicholas von Hoffman

Fri, 01 Aug 2008 16:09:37 GMT

These days, even people who pay attention only to gallery openings and baseball scores are suddenly paying attention to what's happening on Wall Street. Investment bankers and hedge fund managers are crafting financial instruments the likes of which have never been seen by the industry, the consumer or the Federal Reserve. As mortgages melt down, the market gyrates, and the regulators make their pronouncements, here is a short list of some of the business terms and their meanings that are driving our wild financial ride.

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Mugabe's Biggest Sin - F. William Engdahl

Fri, 01 Aug 2008 16:07:18 GMT

Robert Mugabe, the President of Zimbabwe, presides over one of the world's richest minerals treasures, the Great Dyke region, which cuts a geological swath across the entire land from northeast to southwest.

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The Next Big Bail Out, State, Local and Private Pensions - Michael Hudson

Thu, 31 Jul 2008 18:09:43 GMT

The great economic fight of our epoch is being waged by the FIRE sector - Finance, Insurance and Real Estate - against the industrial economy and consumers. Its objective is to maximize property prices and the volume of debt relative to what labor and industry are able to earn.

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Silver and Monetary Considerations - David Morgan

Thu, 31 Jul 2008 16:53:40 GMT

Many of you are probably too young to appreciate the full impact of the hyperinflation in Germany after WW1. It was devastating. This picture shows you the amount of paper that was equal to one silver dollar, or 3/4 of one troy ounce of fine silver. After seven years of constantly accelerating inflation, the mark is finally stabilized at the rate of over 4 trillion to a U.S. dollar.

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Commodities and the CAD - Neil Mellor

Thu, 31 Jul 2008 16:51:49 GMT

In its ongoing fight with the "twin evils" of slowing growth and rising inflation, the Bank of Canada's recent forecasts appeared to argue for tighter policy - just as it was leaving interest rates on hold at 3.0%. The Canadian economy, it seems, is destined to garner strength going into 2009 and headline inflation is set to top out at 4.1% - more than double the BOC's optimal target rate.

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Debit-and-Credit La-La Land - Michael Panzner

Thu, 31 Jul 2008 16:01:20 GMT

I'm pretty good with numbers, but I wouldn't say I'm all that talented when it comes to understanding accounting.

In my view, there is just too much arcane terminology, too much discretion, and too many conflicting interests driving the whole process for me -- and, perhaps, others -- to get a solid handle on what is really going on at a company without knowing more about the industry, the economy, the people, etc.

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The Worst, Best Investments for the Next 5 Years - Larry Edelson

Thu, 31 Jul 2008 16:00:31 GMT

I often discuss what I think are the best investments out there. But this morning, I'm going to spend some time talking about what I think are the worst investments for today, tomorrow and the next five years.

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Will the Fall of an Aussie Bank Rock Wall Street? - Mike Whitney

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 21:13:00 GMT

Monday's trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) was a real humdinger. It started off with the White House announcing that this year's fiscal deficit would soar to a new record of nearly $500 billion. That was followed by news of rising oil prices, weak quarterly earnings and a slowdown in consumer spending.

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Gold Stocks to Make a Key Bottom - Michael Swanson

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 20:17:06 GMT

I believe the next few days are going to be key days for gold stocks just as May was a key time for the S&P 500 and the broad market. If you were following me then you'll know that I took short positions against the general market back in May. However I did not short at the exact top.

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Curing US Inflation, Zimbabwe Style - Adrian Ash

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 19:04:46 GMT

"...Three hundred billion here, $300bn there, and pretty soon you're talking about a wave of dilution hitting cash-holders, bond owners, stock investors and US Dollar earners everywhere..."

YOU'D BE FORGIVEN for thinking they planned it together last night.

Four out of the top nine headlines on Yahoo's financial homepage today came straight from the press departments of the US authorities.

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Top Fund Managers are buying gold - Chicago Tribune

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 17:36:52 GMT

If you saw dark clouds drifting from St. Charles last week, they were probably coming from the dreary mood at the CFA Institute's annual investment seminar for professional investment managers.

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More Than a Helping Hand - James Turk

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 17:32:19 GMT

One of the basic functions of a central bank is to act as the 'lender of last resort'. This facility is used to keep banks liquid during a period of distress.

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The International Gold Rush: Bulls May Soon Be Rewarded - Jim Regan

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 17:31:20 GMT

In a week marked by a furthered short-term collapse of oil and a stronger U.S. dollar, the gold market saw prices drop off by $40 to settle near $925 an ounce. Investors seem quick to point the finger at the commodities market, using any sign of weakness as a cause for a stock market rally, but is the gold rush of late actually winding down?

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Are we trading against Hank Paulson? - Todd Harrison

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 17:29:37 GMT

As both sides of the societal chasm haggle over how the market -- and, by extension, the economy -- is being handled, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson has found himself in the center of the storm.

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Good money vs. Bad money - Steve Saville

Tue, 29 Jul 2008 19:39:41 GMT

It is said that the US dollar will eventually reach its intrinsic value, which is zero. This is probably true, but the lack of intrinsic value isn't the main problem facing the dollar and the other fiat currencies of the world. The fact is that money never has any "intrinsic" value, even when the money is gold and silver coin.

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The WSJ on FDIC Insurance - Michael Panzner

Tue, 29 Jul 2008 19:38:35 GMT

I've recently been getting calls from family members and old friends who are worried about what is happening in the banking sector. They want to know what they can do to protect themselves against being blindsided by the unfolding crisis.

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The return of global inflation - Martin Hutchinson

Mon, 28 Jul 2008 20:36:39 GMT

Global inflation is back, and it is shuffling the kaleidoscope of world economic development. Some countries that had appeared to be thriving are coping poorly with inflation while others, including at least one chronic inflation recidivist, are showing a level of monetary maturity worthy of the Fed's 1980s Chairman Paul Volcker and far ahead of his feckless successors Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke.

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U.S. Dollar Continues to Slide... - Chris Gaffney

Mon, 28 Jul 2008 18:42:45 GMT

Good day... And welcome to the last week of July. I spent the past week fishing with my son and father-in-law up in Manitoba, Canada. We had some great weather and caught an absolute ton of walleye and Pike. My son caught a pike almost as long as he is tall. Just a great guys' trip; but enough about my time off, I'm back at work now, so lets get to the currency markets.

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Congress Taps Paulson's Helmet - Peter Schiff

Mon, 28 Jul 2008 18:41:45 GMT

With President Bush no longer threatening a veto, the subprime mortgage and Fannie and Freddie "bailout" bill is now sailing through Congress. In anticipation of its enactment, Congress had the foresight to raise the national debt limit to $10.6 trillion. Who says that politicians don't plan ahead?

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How High Leverage Has Brought Down the Whole Banking Industry - Thomas Tan

Mon, 28 Jul 2008 18:40:55 GMT

On Tuesday, as the S&P 500 briefly touched 1,200, the banking sector represented by KBW Bank Index [$BKX] (or other similar indices) went down to 47 (which had been range bound and traded around 75-90 early this year), and VIX reached 30, it seemed that the stock market was under capitulation similar to the March plummet. The dropping of $BKX was so severe that it broke my technical target of 55 by 8 points.

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Valuable lessons in mining investing - A Farewell to Mines - Ben Abelson

Mon, 28 Jul 2008 18:39:42 GMT

After almost four years covering mining firms and investments for Resource Investor, your correspondent is moving on to a different opportunity within the commodity arena.

While the departure is somewhat bittersweet, it provides an ideal opportunity to relate some of the more useful - and humbling - lessons learned over the past several years. Although there are certainly many individuals with deeper experience in the field, the perspective of journalist/analyst provides a unique insight into the industry.

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Precious Metals Summer Doldrums - Adam Hamilton

Fri, 25 Jul 2008 21:12:22 GMT

For the most part, this summer has not been kind to precious-metals investors and speculators. While gold did rally rather sharply from mid-June to mid-July, up 12.6%, it could not challenge its $1005 March high. And soon after this retest failed it plunged $47, 4.8%, in just 2 trading days this week.

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India's Gold Demand: A Panic for Gold? - Adrian Ash

Fri, 25 Jul 2008 20:54:06 GMT

Between 2000 and 2007, gold jewelry sold in India accounted for one ounce-in-nine sold worldwide. One ounce in every five wound up as an Indian import (its domestic mines produce less than six tonnes per year), ready to be hung off young brides as 24-carat dowries or worked into bracelets and necklaces for the international market.

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Where Is the Economy Going in the Next Six Months? - Bud Conrad

Fri, 25 Jul 2008 20:15:21 GMT

As investors, the question we have to focus most of our attention on just now is what impact the credit crisis, the bursting housing bubble and the actions of the U.S. government will have on the economy and investment markets in the next six months.

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Silver - Euphoria - David Morgan

Thu, 24 Jul 2008 22:58:56 GMT

This week we took a look back into a recent issue of The Morgan Report and decided to reprint an answer we received from one of our subscribers. It seems many including us are frustrated with what is going on with the junior mining sector. In our opinion we are far from over this major bull market, but we are still in the skeptical phase where many are of the opinion that the mining sector stocks and in particular the junior mining stocks are through.

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What's behind the Slide in Oil and Commodities? - Gary Dorsch

Thu, 24 Jul 2008 19:42:44 GMT

On the morning of July 15th, the price of crude oil, the most widely watched commodity in the world, was gyrating in a narrow range, just above $145 /barrel, as dealers in London were position-squaring ahead of the Nymex opening.

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Last Plane Account

Wed, 23 Jul 2008 16:53:25 GMT

I lived in South East Asia for most of the 1970's, working in the branch offices there for one of the large New York City banks. I was a 'line' officer. This meant that I was not in the back-office, but instead, I dealt with the bank's customers, which principally were large corporations and the wealthy individuals who owned them.

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Money, Credit, Inflation and Deflation - Steve Saville

Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:52:00 GMT

In an article posted earlier this week, Mike "Mish" Shedlock weighed in on the TMS vs. M3 discussion. Mish's article supports our view that TMS (the "True Money Supply" developed by Murray Rothbard and Joseph Salerno) is a more appropriate measure of money supply than M3, although he prefers a measure called "M Prime". The main difference between TMS and M Prime is that TMS includes savings deposits whereas M Prime does not.

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Naked Shorts and the IndyMac Fallout

Tue, 22 Jul 2008 16:41:33 GMT

Fannie and Freddie are insolvent and the Treasury bailout plan (the mother of all bailouts) is protection for Wall Street. Instead of wiping out shareholders of the two GSEs, such a plan bails out shareholders, managers and creditors at a massive cost to U.S. taxpayers.

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Primer in Mining Equity Investment

Mon, 21 Jul 2008 19:08:36 GMT

In the past paper, we talked about the vast performance disparity among metals, and offered our take on which metals to buy (Gold, Zinc) and which to avoid (Copper) going forward.

Not all metals are created equal - metals review:
http://new.goldmau.com/article.php?id=224

In this paper, we will provide the rationale behind mining equity investment, how to choose between metals futures or metals miners, and conclude with which mining sectors to buy and which to avoid.

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Panic on Wall Street Is Building-Gold and Silver's Role

Fri, 18 Jul 2008 22:35:09 GMT

Before getting into this missive, I would like to state that other silver commentators make a very strong case for silver being a metal that does well in good, prosperous times. I absolutely agree.

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Dow Hits Fair Value

Fri, 18 Jul 2008 22:34:21 GMT

In recent weeks a major secular milestone was achieved in the US stock markets. But because of all the distracting market turbulence, very few investors are even aware it happened. And truth be told, even if the markets weren't plunging I still suspect only the most diligent students of the markets would have any inkling.

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John Lee published in Financial Post Manager Picks

Fri, 18 Jul 2008 15:15:47 GMT

Readers, I'm happy to announce that the Financial Post, the daily business newspaper of Canada's National Post, today published my analysis in their 'Manager Picks' section. I read the Post daily as it's an indispensible resource for anyone investing in Canadian equities.

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Is the euro area facing a credit crunch or a credit squeeze?

Wed, 16 Jul 2008 23:03:24 GMT

There are two channels through which the present credit crisis can affect economic activity. The first is prices, making credit more costly, and the second is quantities, making it scarcer. Dearer credit is called a "credit squeeze" and while scarcer credit is called "credit crunch". The euro area seems to be suffering neither of the two, at least for the time being.

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Gold Stocks and the HUI index

Tue, 15 Jul 2008 17:17:30 GMT

With reference to the following daily chart, over the past two weeks the HUI has moved from resistance at 460 to support at 420 back to resistance at 460. The chart already has a bullish tinge, but a solid break above 460 would enhance the picture (from the perspective of those who are long).

As noted in recent commentaries, the "1973 Model" suggests that the gold sector will be relentlessly strong over the next few months, whereas the seasonal pattern points to choppy action during July-August followed by a big rally during the final four months of the year. If the HUI were to follow its seasonal pattern then a short-term peak over the coming week or so would be followed by a 2-4 week pullback.

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America's Second Biggest Bank Failure

Mon, 14 Jul 2008 21:16:07 GMT

Late Friday afternoon (July 11th) federal regulators swooped in on California-based IndyMac Bank and closed its doors. With $32 billion in assets, it is according to The Los Angeles Times the second largest bank failure in US history. IndyMac will re-open its doors on Monday morning as a ward of the FDIC.

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Silver Emergency

Mon, 14 Jul 2008 21:14:55 GMT

In last week's column I presented some fallacies that pertain to the silver market. The feedback I received was mixed; most was positive but some was negative, proclaiming that I was implying the "shorts" could not lose and investing in silver was almost hopeless.

This is not my studied position at all. In fact it has been my conviction from the time I began writing about the silver market that silver is one of the best investments to be made, from the year 2000 to present, and I still maintain that the physical silver and gold markets are the foundational investments that must be owned by any serious precious metals investor.

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Fly Away Money, Fly Away Home

Mon, 14 Jul 2008 21:13:48 GMT

AFTER TWENTY-FIVE YEARS of booming asset markets, it's getting hard to keep hold of your money, let alone grow it.

Inflation is destroying fixed-income bonds. Stocks have tipped into a bear market, down more than one-fifth worldwide. Real estate suffers both over-supply and an historic shortage (too many units vs. no mortgage finance). And this is clearly no time to launch a business relying on discretionary spending, consumer debt or prompt payment.

As for cash-on-deposit, you're fighting not only tax and inflation, but also the very real threat of banking failure. Anyone taking sizeable profits elsewhere has to go "on risk" until they've found a new home for their wealth.

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Trading Stock Bears

Sat, 12 Jul 2008 20:35:37 GMT

Earlier this week, the flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX) officially entered bear-market territory." As it edged past a 20% loss since its all-time high of October 2007, all debate about whether or not a bear really exists was instantly rendered irrelevant." Beyond any doubt we now sojourn in a full-on bear market!

Goldmau Classics: Freddie's insolvency and Gold's immediate outlook

Fri, 11 Jul 2008 19:57:22 GMT

This is a follow up to my last article: 'Subprime Mortgages Lead to Subprime Currency' (available here) in which I wrote:

"The curious mind asks, who holds those $trillions worth of mortgages? Thanks to the genius of the American banking and marketing machine, just about every sizable institution underneath the sun with a fixed income portfolio. From Europeans to Asians, from Banks to Brokerages, from Hedge Funds to Pension Funds, Institution to Retail, Trusts to Endowments.

Securing the Insecure: U.S. Oil Imports

Fri, 11 Jul 2008 15:49:14 GMT

Calls for national security to the contrary, America's appetite for energy is stronger than its caution. In the last 15 years, the United States has steadily increased its dependence on imported crude oil by some 60%. Part of the reason is declining production, as displayed in the chart below.

Something Big is Going On

Thu, 10 Jul 2008 23:13:24 GMT

I have, for the past 35 years, expressed my grave concern for the future of America. The course we have taken over the past century has threatened our liberties, security and prosperity. In spite of these long-held concerns, I have days-growing more frequent all the time-when I'm convinced the time is now upon us that some Big Events are about to occur. These fast-approaching events will not go unnoticed.